Brasileirão

147 matches played 233 remaining 100,000 simulations per model
Current league table — 147 matches played, 233 remaining
# Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts Pts Range Pos Range
1 Palmeiras 15 10 4 1 25 12 +13 34 34–103 1–20
2 Flamengo 14 9 3 2 27 12 +15 30 30–102 1–20
3 Fluminense 15 8 3 4 25 20 +5 27 27–96 1–20
4 São Paulo 15 7 3 5 21 16 +5 24 24–93 1–20
5 Paranaense 15 7 2 6 20 16 +4 23 23–92 1–20
6 Bahia 14 6 4 4 20 18 +2 22 22–94 1–20
7 Vasco da Gama 15 5 5 5 21 21 0 20 20–89 1–20
8 Coritiba 15 5 5 5 18 19 -1 20 20–89 1–20
9 Bragantino 15 6 2 7 17 18 -1 20 20–89 1–20
10 Vitória 14 5 4 5 18 20 -2 19 19–91 1–20
11 Cruzeiro 15 5 4 6 20 25 -5 19 19–88 1–20
12 Internacional 15 4 6 5 16 16 0 18 18–87 1–20
13 Botafogo 14 5 3 6 26 27 -1 18 18–90 1–20
14 Santos 15 4 6 5 21 22 -1 18 18–87 1–20
15 Corinthians 15 4 6 5 13 15 -2 18 18–87 1–20
16 Mineiro 15 5 3 7 18 21 -3 18 18–87 1–20
17 Grêmio 15 4 5 6 15 17 -2 17 17–86 1–20
18 Mirassol 14 3 4 7 16 20 -4 13 13–85 1–20
19 Clube do Remo 15 2 6 7 16 25 -9 12 12–81 1–20
20 Chapecoense 14 1 6 7 14 27 -13 9 9–81 1–20
GlobalRateModel (home: 46.0%, draw: 25.0%, away: 29.0%)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last
1 Palmeiras 2.5 1–9 45.1% 86.7% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Flamengo 3.3 1–11 28.6% 76.4% 0.1% 0.0%
3 Fluminense 5.9 1–16 8.2% 46.2% 0.8% 0.1%
4 São Paulo 7.5 1–17 4.1% 31.1% 2.4% 0.3%
5 Bahia 8.1 1–18 3.3% 26.6% 3.4% 0.6%
6 Paranaense 8.6 1–18 2.5% 23.0% 4.0% 0.7%
7 Vitória 10.3 2–19 1.1% 14.0% 8.7% 1.8%
8 Bragantino 10.4 2–19 1.1% 13.2% 8.6% 1.8%
9 Coritiba 10.4 2–19 1.2% 13.2% 8.7% 1.7%
10 Botafogo 10.7 2–19 1.1% 12.5% 10.2% 2.1%
11 Vasco da Gama 10.8 2–19 0.9% 11.4% 9.9% 2.0%
12 Cruzeiro 11.6 3–20 0.7% 8.9% 13.1% 3.0%
13 Mineiro 11.9 3–20 0.5% 7.7% 14.8% 3.4%
14 Internacional 12.3 3–20 0.4% 6.6% 16.7% 4.1%
15 Santos 12.3 3–20 0.4% 6.6% 16.7% 4.0%
16 Corinthians 12.3 3–20 0.4% 6.5% 16.8% 4.1%
17 Grêmio 12.7 3–20 0.3% 5.7% 18.8% 4.9%
18 Mirassol 15.0 5–20 0.1% 2.2% 37.0% 13.1%
19 Clube do Remo 16.0 6–20 0.0% 1.0% 47.1% 19.2%
20 Chapecoense 17.3 8–20 0.0% 0.4% 62.2% 33.0%
SeasonRateModel (home: 46.9%, draw: 28.6%, away: 24.5%)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last
1 Palmeiras 2.3 1–8 46.5% 88.4% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Flamengo 3.2 1–11 29.9% 79.0% 0.1% 0.0%
3 Fluminense 5.8 1–15 7.6% 46.6% 0.7% 0.1%
4 São Paulo 7.4 1–17 3.9% 31.5% 2.0% 0.3%
5 Bahia 8.1 1–18 2.9% 26.6% 3.1% 0.5%
6 Paranaense 8.6 2–18 2.2% 22.6% 3.7% 0.6%
7 Vitória 10.4 2–19 1.0% 13.2% 8.4% 1.7%
8 Bragantino 10.4 2–19 1.0% 13.2% 8.1% 1.5%
9 Coritiba 10.4 2–19 1.1% 13.1% 8.1% 1.5%
10 Botafogo 10.6 2–19 0.9% 12.6% 9.2% 1.8%
11 Vasco da Gama 10.9 2–19 0.7% 10.8% 9.7% 1.9%
12 Cruzeiro 11.6 3–20 0.6% 8.3% 13.1% 2.8%
13 Mineiro 11.9 3–20 0.4% 7.4% 14.4% 3.3%
14 Santos 12.4 3–20 0.3% 6.1% 16.6% 3.9%
15 Corinthians 12.4 3–20 0.3% 6.2% 16.7% 4.0%
16 Internacional 12.4 3–20 0.3% 6.0% 16.8% 4.0%
17 Grêmio 12.7 3–20 0.2% 5.4% 18.5% 4.5%
18 Mirassol 15.2 5–20 0.1% 1.8% 38.4% 13.5%
19 Clube do Remo 16.1 6–20 0.0% 0.9% 47.5% 19.2%
20 Chapecoense 17.5 8–20 0.0% 0.4% 65.0% 35.0%
PoissonModel (home avg: 1.42, away avg: 1.17, half-life: 10)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last AtkDef
1 Flamengo 1.2 1–2 70–91+28–+59 83.7% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.440.65
2 Palmeiras 2.1 1–4 61–84+10–+38 15.8% 98.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.930.58
3 Vitória 5.5 2–12 50–70-7–+28 0.1% 45.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.551.06
4 São Paulo 5.7 2–13 48–71-8–+28 0.2% 45.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.301.36
5 Internacional 6.7 3–14 46–68-4–+28 0.1% 29.6% 0.2% 0.0% 1.270.81
6 Vasco da Gama 7.5 3–15 45–67-9–+20 0.0% 21.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.990.76
7 Santos 7.5 3–15 45–67-7–+23 0.0% 20.8% 0.3% 0.0% 1.190.77
8 Fluminense 8.3 3–16 44–66-19–+16 0.0% 15.9% 0.6% 0.0% 1.031.30
9 Paranaense 10.0 4–16 43–61-10–+14 0.0% 3.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.600.60
10 Botafogo 11.1 4–18 39–63-20–+14 0.0% 5.6% 4.9% 0.2% 1.181.30
11 Bahia 11.1 4–18 39–62-24–+11 0.0% 4.5% 4.3% 0.2% 1.091.37
12 Corinthians 11.8 4–18 38–61-17–+14 0.0% 3.0% 5.9% 0.2% 1.041.12
13 Mineiro 12.0 4–18 38–60-19–+12 0.0% 2.9% 6.5% 0.2% 1.121.15
14 Cruzeiro 12.5 5–19 38–60-26–+7 0.0% 2.0% 8.0% 0.4% 1.151.25
15 Bragantino 13.2 5–19 37–58-23–+7 0.0% 1.2% 10.3% 0.5% 0.811.07
16 Coritiba 15.2 8–19 34–55-33–0 0.0% 0.2% 25.8% 1.7% 0.991.45
17 Mirassol 15.2 7–20 32–55-22–+7 0.0% 0.3% 28.6% 2.6% 0.800.91
18 Clube do Remo 16.3 9–20 30–53-28–+3 0.0% 0.1% 43.3% 5.5% 0.981.10
19 Grêmio 17.6 12–20 29–48-21–-1 0.0% 0.0% 63.4% 8.2% 0.280.60
20 Chapecoense 19.7 17–20 20–41-52–-19 0.0% 0.0% 96.6% 80.2% 0.731.44
DixonColesModel (home avg: 1.42, away avg: 1.17, rho: 0.000, half-life: 10)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last AtkDef
1 Flamengo 1.2 1–2 70–91+28–+59 83.5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.440.65
2 Palmeiras 2.1 1–4 61–84+10–+38 16.0% 98.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.930.58
3 Vitória 5.5 2–12 50–70-8–+28 0.1% 45.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.551.06
4 São Paulo 5.7 2–13 48–71-8–+28 0.3% 45.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.301.36
5 Internacional 6.7 3–14 46–68-4–+28 0.0% 29.5% 0.2% 0.0% 1.270.81
6 Vasco da Gama 7.5 3–15 45–67-9–+20 0.0% 21.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.990.76
7 Santos 7.5 3–15 45–67-7–+23 0.0% 20.9% 0.3% 0.0% 1.190.77
8 Fluminense 8.3 3–16 44–66-19–+16 0.0% 16.1% 0.6% 0.0% 1.031.30
9 Paranaense 10.0 4–16 43–61-10–+14 0.0% 4.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.600.60
10 Botafogo 11.1 4–18 39–62-20–+14 0.0% 5.5% 4.8% 0.2% 1.181.30
11 Bahia 11.1 4–18 39–62-24–+11 0.0% 4.5% 4.4% 0.2% 1.091.37
12 Corinthians 11.8 4–18 38–61-17–+14 0.0% 3.0% 5.8% 0.2% 1.041.12
13 Mineiro 12.0 4–18 38–61-19–+12 0.0% 2.8% 6.6% 0.3% 1.121.15
14 Cruzeiro 12.5 5–19 37–60-26–+7 0.0% 2.1% 8.1% 0.3% 1.151.25
15 Bragantino 13.1 5–19 37–58-23–+7 0.0% 1.2% 10.2% 0.5% 0.811.07
16 Coritiba 15.2 8–19 34–55-33–0 0.0% 0.2% 25.5% 1.7% 0.991.45
17 Mirassol 15.3 7–20 32–55-22–+7 0.0% 0.3% 28.7% 2.6% 0.800.91
18 Clube do Remo 16.3 9–20 30–53-28–+3 0.0% 0.1% 43.3% 5.4% 0.981.10
19 Grêmio 17.6 12–20 29–49-21–-1 0.0% 0.0% 63.4% 8.2% 0.280.60
20 Chapecoense 19.7 17–20 20–41-51–-19 0.0% 0.0% 96.7% 80.4% 0.731.44
NegBinModel (home avg: 1.42, away avg: 1.17, alpha: 0.000, half-life: 10)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last AtkDef
1 Flamengo 1.2 1–2 69–91+28–+59 83.7% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.440.65
2 Palmeiras 2.1 1–4 61–84+10–+38 15.8% 98.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.930.58
3 Vitória 5.5 2–12 49–70-7–+28 0.1% 45.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.551.06
4 São Paulo 5.7 2–13 48–71-8–+28 0.3% 45.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1.301.36
5 Internacional 6.7 3–14 46–68-4–+27 0.1% 29.6% 0.2% 0.0% 1.270.81
6 Vasco da Gama 7.5 3–15 45–67-9–+21 0.0% 21.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.990.76
7 Santos 7.5 3–15 45–67-7–+23 0.0% 20.7% 0.3% 0.0% 1.190.77
8 Fluminense 8.3 3–16 44–66-19–+15 0.0% 16.0% 0.7% 0.0% 1.031.30
9 Paranaense 10.0 4–16 43–61-10–+14 0.0% 3.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.600.60
10 Botafogo 11.1 4–18 39–63-21–+14 0.0% 5.5% 4.8% 0.2% 1.181.30
11 Bahia 11.1 4–18 39–62-24–+11 0.0% 4.5% 4.4% 0.2% 1.091.37
12 Corinthians 11.8 4–18 38–61-17–+14 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% 0.3% 1.041.12
13 Mineiro 12.0 4–18 38–60-19–+12 0.0% 2.8% 6.6% 0.3% 1.121.15
14 Cruzeiro 12.5 5–19 37–60-26–+7 0.0% 2.1% 8.0% 0.3% 1.151.25
15 Bragantino 13.1 5–19 37–58-23–+7 0.0% 1.2% 10.3% 0.5% 0.811.07
16 Coritiba 15.2 8–19 34–55-33–0 0.0% 0.2% 25.4% 1.7% 0.991.45
17 Mirassol 15.3 7–20 32–55-22–+7 0.0% 0.3% 28.6% 2.6% 0.800.91
18 Clube do Remo 16.4 9–20 30–53-28–+3 0.0% 0.1% 43.2% 5.4% 0.981.10
19 Grêmio 17.6 12–20 29–48-22–-1 0.0% 0.0% 63.6% 8.3% 0.280.60
20 Chapecoense 19.7 17–20 20–41-52–-19 0.0% 0.0% 96.7% 80.3% 0.731.44
EloModel (K=20, home adv: 50 Elo pts, draw rate: 28.6%)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last Elo
1 Palmeiras 1.8 1–5 52.5% 95.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1563
2 Flamengo 2.2 1–7 37.2% 92.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1566
3 Fluminense 5.1 1–13 4.8% 53.9% 0.2% 0.0% 1524
4 São Paulo 7.0 2–16 1.7% 32.1% 1.0% 0.1% 1515
5 Bahia 7.7 2–17 1.3% 26.6% 1.7% 0.1% 1507
6 Paranaense 8.1 2–17 1.0% 22.8% 1.8% 0.1% 1512
7 Vitória 10.3 3–19 0.3% 11.1% 6.0% 0.7% 1499
8 Vasco da Gama 10.3 3–19 0.3% 10.5% 5.9% 0.6% 1504
9 Bragantino 10.7 3–19 0.2% 8.9% 7.0% 0.9% 1493
10 Coritiba 10.8 3–19 0.2% 8.7% 7.1% 0.9% 1497
11 Botafogo 11.1 3–19 0.2% 8.3% 8.6% 1.1% 1494
12 Internacional 11.9 4–19 0.1% 5.5% 11.3% 1.6% 1500
13 Santos 12.0 4–19 0.1% 5.2% 11.8% 1.7% 1499
14 Cruzeiro 12.0 4–19 0.1% 5.1% 11.8% 1.8% 1487
15 Corinthians 12.2 4–19 0.1% 4.6% 12.8% 2.0% 1492
16 Mineiro 12.3 4–19 0.1% 4.6% 13.2% 1.9% 1488
17 Grêmio 12.9 4–20 0.0% 3.3% 16.7% 2.7% 1490
18 Mirassol 16.0 7–20 0.0% 0.6% 44.2% 12.1% 1471
19 Clube do Remo 17.0 8–20 0.0% 0.2% 56.9% 19.9% 1463
20 Chapecoense 18.7 12–20 0.0% 0.0% 81.9% 51.7% 1436
EloPoissonModel (K=20, MoV-scaled, home adv: 50 Elo pts, home avg: 1.54, away avg: 1.10)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last Elo
1 Palmeiras 1.7 1–4 61–85+9–+40 52.9% 98.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1563
2 Flamengo 1.9 1–5 60–84+13–+44 42.0% 97.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1566
3 Fluminense 4.9 1–12 49–73-6–+24 2.9% 57.9% 0.1% 0.0% 1524
4 São Paulo 6.5 2–15 46–70-7–+23 0.9% 35.5% 0.4% 0.0% 1515
5 Bahia 7.4 2–16 44–69-12–+20 0.5% 26.4% 0.9% 0.0% 1507
6 Paranaense 7.7 2–16 44–68-10–+21 0.4% 23.4% 1.0% 0.1% 1512
7 Vasco da Gama 10.1 3–18 40–64-15–+16 0.1% 9.5% 4.1% 0.2% 1504
8 Vitória 10.3 3–18 40–64-18–+14 0.1% 9.3% 4.8% 0.3% 1499
9 Bragantino 10.9 3–18 39–63-17–+13 0.1% 7.1% 5.8% 0.4% 1493
10 Coritiba 10.9 3–18 39–63-17–+13 0.1% 6.6% 6.0% 0.4% 1497
11 Botafogo 11.0 3–19 39–63-17–+14 0.1% 7.0% 6.7% 0.5% 1494
12 Internacional 11.7 4–19 38–62-15–+15 0.0% 4.8% 8.4% 0.7% 1500
13 Santos 11.8 4–19 37–61-17–+14 0.0% 4.4% 9.4% 0.8% 1499
14 Corinthians 12.3 4–19 37–61-18–+12 0.0% 3.5% 11.1% 0.9% 1492
15 Mineiro 12.4 4–19 37–61-20–+11 0.0% 3.4% 11.4% 1.0% 1488
16 Cruzeiro 12.5 4–19 37–61-23–+7 0.0% 3.1% 11.9% 1.2% 1487
17 Grêmio 12.9 4–19 36–60-18–+12 0.0% 2.6% 14.0% 1.4% 1490
18 Mirassol 16.5 8–20 30–54-26–+5 0.0% 0.2% 50.0% 10.3% 1471
19 Clube do Remo 17.4 10–20 28–52-30–0 0.0% 0.1% 62.4% 16.7% 1463
20 Chapecoense 19.3 15–20 22–45-42–-11 0.0% 0.0% 91.6% 65.1% 1436
Top 4
Bottom 3
Generated 2026-05-12 14:46
Disclaimer: These are simulated statistical models for entertainment purposes only. Results are based on publicly available data and are believed to be accurate, but no guarantees are made.