Ligue 1

295 matches played 11 remaining 100,000 simulations per model
Current league table — 295 matches played, 11 remaining
# Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts Pts Range Pos Range
1 PSG 32 23 4 5 71 27 +44 73 73–79 1–2
2 RC Lens 32 21 4 7 62 33 +29 67 67–73 1–2
3 Lille 33 18 7 8 52 35 +17 61 61–64 3–5
4 Olympique Lyon 33 18 6 9 53 36 +17 60 60–63 3–5
5 Stade Rennais 33 17 8 8 58 47 +11 59 59–62 3–6
6 Marseille 33 17 5 11 60 44 +16 56 56–59 5–7
7 Monaco 33 16 6 11 56 49 +7 54 54–57 6–7
8 Strasbourg 32 13 8 11 51 42 +9 47 47–53 8–10
9 Lorient 33 11 12 10 48 49 -1 45 45–48 8–10
10 Toulouse 33 12 8 13 47 46 +1 44 44–47 8–12
11 Paris FC 33 10 11 12 45 49 -4 41 41–44 10–12
12 Brest 32 10 8 14 41 52 -11 38 38–44 10–13
13 Angers SCO 33 9 8 16 28 47 -19 35 35–38 12–14
14 Le Havre 33 6 14 13 30 44 -14 32 32–35 13–16
15 Auxerre 33 7 10 16 32 44 -12 31 31–34 14–16
16 Nice 33 7 10 16 37 60 -23 31 31–34 14–16
17 Nantes 33 5 8 20 29 52 -23 23 23–26 17–17
18 FC Metz 33 3 7 23 32 76 -44 16 16–19 18–18
GlobalRateModel (home: 46.0%, draw: 25.0%, away: 29.0%)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last
1 PSG 1.0 1–2 96.9% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 RC Lens 2.0 1–2 3.1% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Lille 3.4 3–5 0.0% 93.5% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Olympique Lyon 3.9 3–5 0.0% 81.7% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Stade Rennais 4.9 3–6 0.0% 24.9% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Marseille 5.9 5–7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Monaco 6.9 6–7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Strasbourg 8.1 8–9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Lorient 9.1 8–10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Toulouse 9.9 9–11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11 Paris FC 11.2 10–12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 Brest 11.7 10–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13 Angers SCO 13.0 12–14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 Le Havre 14.6 13–16 0.0% 0.0% 14.7% 0.0%
15 Nice 15.0 14–16 0.0% 0.0% 32.6% 0.0%
16 Auxerre 15.3 14–16 0.0% 0.0% 52.7% 0.0%
17 Nantes 17.0 17–17 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
18 FC Metz 18.0 18–18 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%
SeasonRateModel (home: 46.8%, draw: 24.4%, away: 28.8%)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last
1 PSG 1.0 1–2 96.9% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 RC Lens 2.0 1–2 3.1% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Lille 3.4 3–5 0.0% 93.5% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Olympique Lyon 3.9 3–5 0.0% 82.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Stade Rennais 4.9 3–6 0.0% 24.4% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Marseille 5.9 5–7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Monaco 6.9 6–7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Strasbourg 8.1 8–9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Lorient 9.1 8–10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Toulouse 10.0 9–11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11 Paris FC 11.2 10–12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 Brest 11.7 10–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13 Angers SCO 13.0 12–14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 Le Havre 14.6 13–16 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 0.0%
15 Nice 15.0 14–16 0.0% 0.0% 31.8% 0.0%
16 Auxerre 15.3 14–16 0.0% 0.0% 53.3% 0.0%
17 Nantes 17.0 17–17 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
18 FC Metz 18.0 18–18 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%
PoissonModel (home avg: 1.53, away avg: 1.31, half-life: 10)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last AtkDef
1 PSG 1.0 1–1 74–79+43–+50 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.620.35
2 RC Lens 2.0 2–2 67–73+22–+32 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.120.67
3 Lille 3.4 3–5 61–64+15–+21 0.0% 95.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.880.43
4 Olympique Lyon 3.7 3–5 60–63+14–+23 0.0% 91.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.431.11
5 Stade Rennais 5.4 4–6 59–62+6–+14 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.441.28
6 Marseille 5.6 5–7 56–59+13–+21 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.850.82
7 Monaco 6.8 6–7 54–57+5–+12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.960.97
8 Strasbourg 8.1 8–9 47–53+3–+14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.921.11
9 Lorient 9.1 8–10 45–48-4–+3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.571.01
10 Toulouse 9.8 9–10 44–47-3–+4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.260.98
11 Paris FC 11.4 11–12 41–44-8–-3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.220.86
12 Brest 11.6 11–12 38–44-16–-3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.971.59
13 Angers SCO 13.2 13–14 35–38-26–-17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.631.31
14 Le Havre 14.2 13–16 32–35-18–-11 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 0.0% 0.711.00
15 Auxerre 15.1 14–16 31–34-16–-10 0.0% 0.0% 30.3% 0.0% 1.221.07
16 Nice 15.4 14–16 31–34-28–-19 0.0% 0.0% 60.5% 0.0% 0.701.05
17 Nantes 17.0 17–17 23–26-26–-19 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.790.79
18 FC Metz 18.0 18–18 16–19-48–-39 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.132.15
DixonColesModel (home avg: 1.53, away avg: 1.31, rho: -0.010, half-life: 10)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last AtkDef
1 PSG 1.0 1–1 74–79+43–+50 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.620.35
2 RC Lens 2.0 2–2 67–73+22–+32 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.120.67
3 Lille 3.4 3–5 61–64+15–+21 0.0% 95.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.880.43
4 Olympique Lyon 3.7 3–5 60–63+14–+23 0.0% 91.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.431.11
5 Stade Rennais 5.4 4–6 59–62+6–+14 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.441.28
6 Marseille 5.6 5–7 56–59+13–+21 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.850.82
7 Monaco 6.8 6–7 54–57+5–+12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.960.97
8 Strasbourg 8.1 8–9 47–53+3–+14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.921.11
9 Lorient 9.1 8–10 45–48-4–+3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.571.01
10 Toulouse 9.8 9–10 44–47-3–+4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.260.98
11 Paris FC 11.3 11–12 41–44-8–-3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.220.86
12 Brest 11.7 11–12 38–44-16–-3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.971.59
13 Angers SCO 13.2 13–14 35–38-26–-17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.631.31
14 Le Havre 14.2 13–16 32–35-18–-11 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 0.0% 0.711.00
15 Auxerre 15.1 14–16 31–34-16–-10 0.0% 0.0% 30.5% 0.0% 1.221.07
16 Nice 15.4 14–16 31–34-28–-19 0.0% 0.0% 60.5% 0.0% 0.701.05
17 Nantes 17.0 17–17 23–26-26–-19 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.790.79
18 FC Metz 18.0 18–18 16–19-48–-39 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.132.15
NegBinModel (home avg: 1.53, away avg: 1.31, alpha: 0.147, half-life: 10)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last AtkDef
1 PSG 1.0 1–1 74–79+42–+50 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.620.35
2 RC Lens 2.0 2–2 67–73+21–+33 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.120.67
3 Lille 3.4 3–5 61–64+14–+21 0.0% 95.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.880.43
4 Olympique Lyon 3.8 3–5 60–63+13–+24 0.0% 90.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.431.11
5 Stade Rennais 5.4 3–6 59–62+5–+15 0.0% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.441.28
6 Marseille 5.6 5–7 56–59+12–+22 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.850.82
7 Monaco 6.8 6–7 54–57+5–+13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.960.97
8 Strasbourg 8.1 8–9 47–53+2–+15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.921.11
9 Lorient 9.1 8–10 45–48-4–+3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.571.01
10 Toulouse 9.8 9–10 44–47-4–+4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.260.98
11 Paris FC 11.3 11–12 41–44-9–-3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.220.86
12 Brest 11.7 11–12 38–44-17–-1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.971.59
13 Angers SCO 13.2 13–14 35–38-28–-16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.631.31
14 Le Havre 14.3 13–16 32–35-18–-11 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 0.0% 0.711.00
15 Auxerre 15.1 14–16 31–34-16–-9 0.0% 0.0% 30.3% 0.0% 1.221.07
16 Nice 15.4 14–16 31–34-29–-18 0.0% 0.0% 60.0% 0.0% 0.701.05
17 Nantes 17.0 17–17 23–26-26–-18 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.790.79
18 FC Metz 18.0 18–18 16–19-49–-38 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.132.15
EloModel (K=20, home adv: 50 Elo pts, draw rate: 24.4%)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last Elo
1 PSG 1.0 1–1 97.8% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1626
2 RC Lens 2.0 2–2 2.2% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1587
3 Lille 3.3 3–5 0.0% 94.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1565
4 Olympique Lyon 4.1 3–5 0.0% 75.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1559
5 Stade Rennais 4.8 3–6 0.0% 30.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1559
6 Marseille 6.0 5–7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1527
7 Monaco 6.8 6–7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1530
8 Strasbourg 8.1 8–9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1518
9 Lorient 9.1 8–10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1516
10 Toulouse 9.8 9–11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1495
11 Paris FC 11.3 10–12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1502
12 Brest 11.7 10–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1466
13 Angers SCO 13.0 12–14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1432
14 Le Havre 14.6 13–16 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 0.0% 1448
15 Nice 14.9 14–16 0.0% 0.0% 24.7% 0.0% 1435
16 Auxerre 15.5 14–16 0.0% 0.0% 61.3% 0.0% 1463
17 Nantes 17.0 17–17 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1415
18 FC Metz 18.0 18–18 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1359
EloPoissonModel (K=20, MoV-scaled, home adv: 50 Elo pts, home avg: 1.60, away avg: 1.22)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last Elo
1 PSG 1.0 1–1 73–79+40–+49 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1626
2 RC Lens 2.0 2–2 67–73+24–+34 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1587
3 Lille 3.2 3–5 61–64+15–+22 0.0% 96.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1565
4 Olympique Lyon 4.0 3–5 60–63+14–+20 0.0% 81.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1559
5 Stade Rennais 5.2 3–6 59–62+8–+14 0.0% 22.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1559
6 Marseille 5.7 5–7 56–59+13–+19 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1527
7 Monaco 6.9 6–7 54–57+3–+10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1530
8 Strasbourg 8.1 8–9 47–53+5–+14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1518
9 Lorient 9.2 8–10 45–48-3–+3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1516
10 Toulouse 9.8 9–10 44–47-2–+5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1495
11 Paris FC 11.3 11–12 41–44-8–-1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1502
12 Brest 11.7 11–12 38–44-15–-6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1466
13 Angers SCO 13.1 13–14 35–38-23–-16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1432
14 Le Havre 14.6 13–16 32–35-18–-12 0.0% 0.0% 14.6% 0.0% 1448
15 Nice 14.9 14–16 31–34-25–-19 0.0% 0.0% 27.3% 0.0% 1435
16 Auxerre 15.4 14–16 31–34-17–-10 0.0% 0.0% 58.1% 0.0% 1463
17 Nantes 17.0 17–17 23–26-27–-20 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1415
18 FC Metz 18.0 18–18 16–19-48–-42 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1359
Top 4
Bottom 3
Generated 2026-05-12 14:12
Disclaimer: These are simulated statistical models for entertainment purposes only. Results are based on publicly available data and are believed to be accurate, but no guarantees are made.