Bundesliga

297 matches played 9 remaining 100,000 simulations per model
Current league table — 297 matches played, 9 remaining
# Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts Pts Range Pos Range
1 Bayern 33 27 5 1 117 35 +82 86 86–89 1–1
2 Dortmund 33 21 7 5 68 34 +34 70 70–73 2–2
3 RB Leipzig 33 20 5 8 65 43 +22 65 65–68 3–3
4 Stuttgart 33 18 7 8 69 47 +22 61 61–64 4–6
5 Hoffenheim 33 18 7 8 65 48 +17 61 61–64 4–6
6 Leverkusen 33 17 7 9 67 46 +21 58 58–61 4–6
7 Freiburg 33 12 8 13 47 56 -9 44 44–47 7–9
8 Frankfurt 33 11 10 12 59 63 -4 43 43–46 7–9
9 Augsburg 33 12 7 14 45 57 -12 43 43–46 7–9
10 Mainz 33 9 10 14 42 53 -11 37 37–40 10–13
11 HSV 33 9 10 14 39 53 -14 37 37–40 10–13
12 Union Berlin 33 9 9 15 40 58 -18 36 36–39 10–13
13 M'gladbach 33 8 11 14 38 53 -15 35 35–38 10–15
14 1. FC Köln 33 7 11 15 48 58 -10 32 32–35 13–15
15 Bremen 33 8 8 17 37 58 -21 32 32–35 13–15
16 Wolfsburg 33 6 8 19 42 68 -26 26 26–29 16–18
17 Heidenheim 33 6 8 19 41 70 -29 26 26–29 16–18
18 St. Pauli 33 6 8 19 28 57 -29 26 26–29 16–18
GlobalRateModel (home: 46.0%, draw: 25.0%, away: 29.0%)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last
1 Bayern 1.0 1–1 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Dortmund 2.0 2–2 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 RB Leipzig 3.0 3–3 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Hoffenheim 4.6 4–6 0.0% 48.3% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Stuttgart 4.6 4–6 0.0% 48.3% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Leverkusen 5.8 4–6 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Freiburg 7.5 7–9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Frankfurt 8.1 7–9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Augsburg 8.4 7–9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Mainz 11.2 10–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11 HSV 11.2 10–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 Union Berlin 11.5 10–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13 M'gladbach 12.3 10–14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 Bremen 14.3 13–15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 1. FC Köln 14.6 13–15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Heidenheim 16.9 16–18 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 20.0%
17 St. Pauli 16.9 16–18 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 32.8%
18 Wolfsburg 17.2 16–18 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 47.2%
SeasonRateModel (home: 43.8%, draw: 24.6%, away: 31.6%)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last
1 Bayern 1.0 1–1 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Dortmund 2.0 2–2 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 RB Leipzig 3.0 3–3 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Stuttgart 4.6 4–6 0.0% 48.8% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Hoffenheim 4.6 4–6 0.0% 48.4% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Leverkusen 5.8 4–6 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Freiburg 7.5 7–9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Frankfurt 8.1 7–9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Augsburg 8.4 7–9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 HSV 11.1 10–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11 Mainz 11.1 10–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 Union Berlin 11.6 10–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13 M'gladbach 12.3 10–14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 Bremen 14.4 13–15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 1. FC Köln 14.5 13–15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Heidenheim 16.9 16–18 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 21.6%
17 St. Pauli 16.9 16–18 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 33.9%
18 Wolfsburg 17.1 16–18 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 44.5%
PoissonModel (home avg: 1.79, away avg: 1.60, half-life: 10)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last AtkDef
1 Bayern 1.0 1–1 86–89+79–+88 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.700.88
2 Dortmund 2.0 2–2 70–73+32–+37 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.060.70
3 RB Leipzig 3.0 3–3 65–68+17–+24 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.101.06
4 Stuttgart 4.3 4–6 61–64+19–+28 0.0% 77.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.481.10
5 Hoffenheim 5.1 4–6 61–64+14–+20 0.0% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.120.75
6 Leverkusen 5.6 4–6 58–61+19–+27 0.0% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.341.00
7 Freiburg 7.4 7–9 44–47-11–-4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.821.13
8 Augsburg 8.1 7–9 43–46-14–-7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.310.78
9 Frankfurt 8.6 7–9 43–46-10–-1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.931.29
10 Mainz 10.4 10–12 37–40-14–-8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.871.14
11 HSV 11.3 10–13 37–40-20–-12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.051.07
12 M'gladbach 12.1 10–14 35–38-18–-12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.590.81
13 Union Berlin 12.3 10–13 36–39-23–-16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.121.03
14 1. FC Köln 14.3 13–15 32–35-16–-7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.881.28
15 Bremen 14.6 14–15 32–35-24–-19 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.561.10
16 Wolfsburg 16.4 16–18 26–29-28–-22 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 12.7% 0.530.82
17 Heidenheim 17.1 16–18 26–29-32–-26 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 21.5% 1.280.80
18 St. Pauli 17.5 16–18 26–29-33–-27 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 65.8% 0.501.18
DixonColesModel (home avg: 1.79, away avg: 1.60, rho: -0.010, half-life: 10)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last AtkDef
1 Bayern 1.0 1–1 86–89+79–+88 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.700.88
2 Dortmund 2.0 2–2 70–73+32–+37 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.060.70
3 RB Leipzig 3.0 3–3 65–68+17–+24 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.101.06
4 Stuttgart 4.3 4–6 61–64+19–+28 0.0% 76.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.481.10
5 Hoffenheim 5.1 4–6 61–64+14–+20 0.0% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.120.75
6 Leverkusen 5.6 4–6 58–61+19–+27 0.0% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.341.00
7 Freiburg 7.4 7–9 44–47-11–-4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.821.13
8 Augsburg 8.1 7–9 43–46-14–-7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.310.78
9 Frankfurt 8.6 7–9 43–46-10–-1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.931.29
10 Mainz 10.4 10–12 37–40-14–-8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.871.14
11 HSV 11.3 10–13 37–40-20–-12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.051.07
12 M'gladbach 12.1 10–14 35–38-18–-12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.590.81
13 Union Berlin 12.3 10–13 36–39-23–-16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.121.03
14 1. FC Köln 14.3 13–15 32–35-16–-7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.881.28
15 Bremen 14.6 14–15 32–35-24–-19 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.561.10
16 Wolfsburg 16.4 16–18 26–29-28–-22 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 12.3% 0.530.82
17 Heidenheim 17.1 16–18 26–29-32–-26 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 21.8% 1.280.80
18 St. Pauli 17.5 16–18 26–29-33–-27 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 65.9% 0.501.18
NegBinModel (home avg: 1.79, away avg: 1.60, alpha: 0.065, half-life: 10)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last AtkDef
1 Bayern 1.0 1–1 86–89+78–+89 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.700.88
2 Dortmund 2.0 2–2 70–73+32–+37 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.060.70
3 RB Leipzig 3.0 3–3 65–68+17–+25 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.101.06
4 Stuttgart 4.4 4–6 61–64+19–+29 0.0% 75.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.481.10
5 Hoffenheim 5.1 4–6 61–64+14–+20 0.0% 19.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.120.75
6 Leverkusen 5.6 4–6 58–61+19–+28 0.0% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.341.00
7 Freiburg 7.4 7–9 44–47-12–-4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.821.13
8 Augsburg 8.1 7–9 43–46-14–-6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.310.78
9 Frankfurt 8.5 7–9 43–46-11–-1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.931.29
10 Mainz 10.4 10–12 37–40-15–-8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.871.14
11 HSV 11.3 10–13 37–40-21–-12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.051.07
12 M'gladbach 12.1 10–14 35–38-18–-12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.590.81
13 Union Berlin 12.2 10–13 36–39-24–-16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.121.03
14 1. FC Köln 14.3 13–15 32–35-17–-6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.881.28
15 Bremen 14.6 14–15 32–35-24–-19 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.561.10
16 Wolfsburg 16.4 16–18 26–29-28–-22 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 12.8% 0.530.82
17 Heidenheim 17.1 16–18 26–29-32–-25 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 22.1% 1.280.80
18 St. Pauli 17.5 16–18 26–29-33–-27 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 65.0% 0.501.18
EloModel (K=20, home adv: 50 Elo pts, draw rate: 24.6%)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last Elo
1 Bayern 1.0 1–1 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1704
2 Dortmund 2.0 2–2 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1614
3 RB Leipzig 3.0 3–3 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1578
4 Hoffenheim 4.6 4–6 0.0% 49.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1561
5 Stuttgart 4.6 4–6 0.0% 48.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1580
6 Leverkusen 5.8 5–6 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1563
7 Freiburg 7.6 7–9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1478
8 Augsburg 8.2 7–9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1487
9 Frankfurt 8.3 7–9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1482
10 Mainz 10.8 10–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1479
11 HSV 11.2 10–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1461
12 Union Berlin 11.6 10–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1440
13 M'gladbach 12.5 10–14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1455
14 Bremen 14.3 13–15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1431
15 1. FC Köln 14.6 13–15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1443
16 St. Pauli 16.9 16–18 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 34.4% 1402
17 Heidenheim 17.0 16–18 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 25.4% 1424
18 Wolfsburg 17.1 16–18 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 40.2% 1419
EloPoissonModel (K=20, MoV-scaled, home adv: 50 Elo pts, home avg: 1.76, away avg: 1.46)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last Elo
1 Bayern 1.0 1–1 86–89+81–+88 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1704
2 Dortmund 2.0 2–2 70–73+32–+39 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1614
3 RB Leipzig 3.0 3–3 65–68+19–+26 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1578
4 Stuttgart 4.5 4–6 61–64+19–+26 0.0% 62.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1580
5 Hoffenheim 4.9 4–6 61–64+14–+21 0.0% 32.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1561
6 Leverkusen 5.6 4–6 58–61+19–+26 0.0% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1563
7 Freiburg 7.6 7–9 44–47-13–-6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1478
8 Frankfurt 8.1 7–9 43–46-8–-1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1482
9 Augsburg 8.3 7–9 43–46-16–-9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1487
10 Mainz 10.5 10–12 37–40-14–-7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1479
11 HSV 11.4 10–13 37–40-19–-12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1461
12 Union Berlin 11.7 10–13 36–39-21–-14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1440
13 M'gladbach 12.4 10–13 35–38-19–-12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1455
14 1. FC Köln 14.3 14–15 32–35-16–-9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1443
15 Bremen 14.7 14–15 32–35-26–-19 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1431
16 Wolfsburg 16.8 16–18 26–29-30–-23 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 28.1% 1419
17 St. Pauli 17.0 16–18 26–29-32–-25 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 36.3% 1402
18 Heidenheim 17.2 16–18 26–29-33–-26 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 35.6% 1424
Top 4
Bottom 3
Generated 2026-05-12 14:07
Disclaimer: These are simulated statistical models for entertainment purposes only. Results are based on publicly available data and are believed to be accurate, but no guarantees are made.