Primeira Liga

297 matches played 9 remaining 100,000 simulations per model
Current league table — 297 matches played, 9 remaining
# Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts Pts Range Pos Range
1 Porto 33 27 4 2 65 18 +47 85 85–88 1–1
2 Sporting CP 33 24 7 2 86 24 +62 79 79–82 2–3
3 SL Benfica 33 22 11 0 71 24 +47 77 77–80 2–3
4 Braga 33 16 10 7 62 34 +28 58 58–61 4–4
5 Famalicão 33 14 11 8 41 29 +12 53 53–56 5–6
6 Gil Vicente 33 13 11 9 47 35 +12 50 50–53 5–6
7 Vitória SC 33 12 6 15 39 49 -10 42 42–45 7–11
8 Moreirense 33 12 6 15 37 49 -12 42 42–45 7–11
9 Estoril Praia 33 10 9 14 53 54 -1 39 39–42 7–12
10 Alverca 33 10 9 14 35 51 -16 39 39–42 7–12
11 Arouca 33 11 6 16 44 63 -19 39 39–42 7–12
12 Santa Clara 33 9 9 15 32 40 -8 36 36–39 9–13
13 Rio Ave 33 8 11 14 34 56 -22 35 35–38 12–13
14 CD Nacional 33 8 7 18 35 45 -10 31 31–34 14–17
15 Amadora 33 6 11 16 36 54 -18 29 29–32 14–17
16 Casa Pia 33 6 11 16 30 56 -26 29 29–32 14–17
17 Tondela 33 6 10 17 26 52 -26 28 28–31 14–17
18 AVS 33 3 11 19 27 67 -40 20 20–23 18–18
GlobalRateModel (home: 46.0%, draw: 25.0%, away: 29.0%)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last
1 Porto 1.0 1–1 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Sporting CP 2.1 2–3 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 SL Benfica 2.9 2–3 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Braga 4.0 4–4 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Famalicão 5.0 5–6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Gil Vicente 6.0 5–6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Moreirense 7.6 7–10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Vitória SC 7.9 7–10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Arouca 9.8 8–12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Estoril Praia 9.8 8–12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11 Alverca 10.2 8–12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 Santa Clara 12.1 10–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13 Rio Ave 12.7 12–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 CD Nacional 14.4 14–16 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 0.0%
15 Casa Pia 15.4 14–17 0.0% 0.0% 43.9% 0.0%
16 Amadora 15.7 14–17 0.0% 0.0% 63.2% 0.0%
17 Tondela 16.5 15–17 0.0% 0.0% 85.7% 0.0%
18 AVS 18.0 18–18 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%
SeasonRateModel (home: 40.7%, draw: 26.9%, away: 32.3%)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last
1 Porto 1.0 1–1 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Sporting CP 2.1 2–3 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 SL Benfica 2.9 2–3 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Braga 4.0 4–4 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Famalicão 5.1 5–6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Gil Vicente 5.9 5–6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Moreirense 7.6 7–10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Vitória SC 7.8 7–10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Arouca 9.9 8–12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Estoril Praia 9.9 8–12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11 Alverca 10.1 8–12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 Santa Clara 12.1 10–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13 Rio Ave 12.7 12–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 CD Nacional 14.4 14–16 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 0.0%
15 Casa Pia 15.5 14–17 0.0% 0.0% 49.1% 0.0%
16 Amadora 15.7 14–17 0.0% 0.0% 59.5% 0.0%
17 Tondela 16.4 15–17 0.0% 0.0% 83.4% 0.0%
18 AVS 18.0 18–18 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%
PoissonModel (home avg: 1.45, away avg: 1.23, half-life: 10)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last AtkDef
1 Porto 1.0 1–1 85–88+46–+51 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.170.70
2 Sporting CP 2.1 2–3 79–82+60–+65 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.370.80
3 SL Benfica 2.9 2–3 77–80+46–+52 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.581.07
4 Braga 4.0 4–4 58–61+26–+33 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.200.97
5 Famalicão 5.0 5–5 53–56+10–+16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.850.78
6 Gil Vicente 6.0 6–6 50–53+9–+14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.680.95
7 Moreirense 7.4 7–9 42–45-15–-8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.841.28
8 Vitória SC 7.7 7–9 42–45-15–-8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.671.51
9 Estoril Praia 9.8 8–11 39–42-6–0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.701.04
10 Arouca 10.0 9–11 39–42-22–-15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.441.16
11 Alverca 10.2 9–11 39–42-20–-14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.590.89
12 Santa Clara 12.3 11–13 36–39-12–-7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.130.75
13 Rio Ave 12.7 12–13 35–38-24–-20 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.551.45
14 CD Nacional 14.1 14–15 31–34-12–-5 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.571.14
15 Amadora 15.7 14–17 29–32-23–-16 0.0% 0.0% 57.2% 0.0% 0.711.09
16 Casa Pia 15.9 15–17 29–32-28–-24 0.0% 0.0% 65.6% 0.0% 0.500.81
17 Tondela 16.3 15–17 28–31-30–-23 0.0% 0.0% 76.7% 0.0% 0.900.74
18 AVS 18.0 18–18 20–23-44–-37 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.241.03
DixonColesModel (home avg: 1.45, away avg: 1.23, rho: 0.000, half-life: 10)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last AtkDef
1 Porto 1.0 1–1 85–88+46–+51 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.170.70
2 Sporting CP 2.1 2–3 79–82+60–+66 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.370.80
3 SL Benfica 2.9 2–3 77–80+46–+52 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.581.07
4 Braga 4.0 4–4 58–61+26–+33 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.200.97
5 Famalicão 5.0 5–5 53–56+10–+16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.850.78
6 Gil Vicente 6.0 6–6 50–53+8–+14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.680.95
7 Moreirense 7.4 7–9 42–45-15–-8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.841.28
8 Vitória SC 7.7 7–9 42–45-15–-8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.671.51
9 Estoril Praia 9.8 8–11 39–42-6–0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.701.04
10 Arouca 10.0 9–11 39–42-22–-15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.441.16
11 Alverca 10.2 9–11 39–42-20–-14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.590.89
12 Santa Clara 12.3 11–13 36–39-12–-7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.130.75
13 Rio Ave 12.7 12–13 35–38-24–-20 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.551.45
14 CD Nacional 14.1 14–15 31–34-12–-5 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.571.14
15 Amadora 15.7 14–17 29–32-23–-16 0.0% 0.0% 57.2% 0.0% 0.711.09
16 Casa Pia 15.9 15–17 29–32-28–-24 0.0% 0.0% 65.6% 0.0% 0.500.81
17 Tondela 16.3 15–17 28–31-30–-23 0.0% 0.0% 76.8% 0.0% 0.900.74
18 AVS 18.0 18–18 20–23-44–-37 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.241.03
NegBinModel (home avg: 1.45, away avg: 1.23, alpha: 0.075, half-life: 10)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last AtkDef
1 Porto 1.0 1–1 85–88+46–+52 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.170.70
2 Sporting CP 2.1 2–3 79–82+60–+66 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.370.80
3 SL Benfica 2.9 2–3 77–80+45–+53 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.581.07
4 Braga 4.0 4–4 58–61+25–+33 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.200.97
5 Famalicão 5.0 5–5 53–56+10–+16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.850.78
6 Gil Vicente 6.0 6–6 50–53+8–+14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.680.95
7 Moreirense 7.5 7–9 42–45-16–-7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.841.28
8 Vitória SC 7.7 7–9 42–45-16–-8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.671.51
9 Estoril Praia 9.7 8–11 39–42-7–+1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.701.04
10 Arouca 10.0 9–11 39–42-22–-15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.441.16
11 Alverca 10.2 9–11 39–42-20–-14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.590.89
12 Santa Clara 12.3 11–13 36–39-13–-7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.130.75
13 Rio Ave 12.7 12–13 35–38-24–-20 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.551.45
14 CD Nacional 14.1 14–15 31–34-12–-4 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.571.14
15 Amadora 15.7 14–17 29–32-23–-15 0.0% 0.0% 56.4% 0.0% 0.711.09
16 Casa Pia 15.9 15–17 29–32-28–-24 0.0% 0.0% 66.2% 0.0% 0.500.81
17 Tondela 16.3 15–17 28–31-30–-23 0.0% 0.0% 76.8% 0.0% 0.900.74
18 AVS 18.0 18–18 20–23-45–-36 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.241.03
EloModel (K=20, home adv: 50 Elo pts, draw rate: 26.9%)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last Elo
1 Porto 1.0 1–1 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1655
2 Sporting CP 2.1 2–3 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1666
3 SL Benfica 2.9 2–3 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1648
4 Braga 4.0 4–4 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1579
5 Famalicão 5.0 5–6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1545
6 Gil Vicente 6.0 5–6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1514
7 Moreirense 7.6 7–9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1464
8 Vitória SC 7.8 7–10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1468
9 Arouca 9.6 8–11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1469
10 Estoril Praia 10.1 8–12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1487
11 Alverca 10.1 8–12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1463
12 Santa Clara 12.2 10–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1471
13 Rio Ave 12.6 12–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1437
14 CD Nacional 14.3 14–16 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 0.0% 1449
15 Casa Pia 15.4 14–17 0.0% 0.0% 41.5% 0.0% 1420
16 Amadora 15.9 14–17 0.0% 0.0% 70.1% 0.0% 1429
17 Tondela 16.4 15–17 0.0% 0.0% 82.6% 0.0% 1426
18 AVS 18.0 18–18 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1410
EloPoissonModel (K=20, MoV-scaled, home adv: 50 Elo pts, home avg: 1.49, away avg: 1.20)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last Elo
1 Porto 1.0 1–1 85–88+46–+52 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1655
2 Sporting CP 2.1 2–3 79–82+60–+67 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1666
3 SL Benfica 2.9 2–3 77–80+45–+51 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1648
4 Braga 4.0 4–4 58–61+26–+33 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1579
5 Famalicão 5.0 5–5 53–56+10–+16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1545
6 Gil Vicente 6.0 6–6 50–53+7–+14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1514
7 Moreirense 7.5 7–9 42–45-14–-8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1464
8 Vitória SC 7.6 7–9 42–45-14–-7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1468
9 Estoril Praia 9.7 8–11 39–42-5–+1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1487
10 Arouca 9.8 9–11 39–42-21–-15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1469
11 Alverca 10.4 9–12 39–42-20–-14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1463
12 Santa Clara 12.2 11–13 36–39-13–-7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1471
13 Rio Ave 12.7 12–13 35–38-26–-19 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1437
14 CD Nacional 14.2 14–15 31–34-13–-6 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 1449
15 Casa Pia 15.5 14–17 29–32-29–-22 0.0% 0.0% 46.1% 0.0% 1420
16 Amadora 15.7 14–17 29–32-23–-16 0.0% 0.0% 63.7% 0.0% 1429
17 Tondela 16.6 15–17 28–31-30–-24 0.0% 0.0% 88.7% 0.0% 1426
18 AVS 18.0 18–18 20–23-44–-38 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1410
Top 4
Bottom 3
Generated 2026-05-12 14:15
Disclaimer: These are simulated statistical models for entertainment purposes only. Results are based on publicly available data and are believed to be accurate, but no guarantees are made.