Primeira Liga

306 matches played 0 remaining 100,000 simulations per model
Current league table — 306 matches played, 0 remaining
# Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts Pts Range Pos Range
1 Porto 34 28 4 2 66 18 +48 88 88–88 1–1
2 Sporting CP 34 25 7 2 89 24 +65 82 82–82 2–2
3 SL Benfica 34 23 11 0 74 25 +49 80 80–80 3–3
4 Braga 34 16 11 7 64 36 +28 59 59–59 4–4
5 Famalicão 34 15 11 8 42 29 +13 56 56–56 5–5
6 Gil Vicente 34 13 11 10 47 38 +9 50 50–50 6–6
7 Moreirense 34 12 7 15 37 49 -12 43 43–43 7–7
8 Vitória SC 34 12 6 16 39 51 -12 42 42–42 8–9
9 Arouca 34 12 6 16 47 64 -17 42 42–42 8–9
10 Estoril Praia 34 10 9 15 54 57 -3 39 39–39 10–11
11 Alverca 34 10 9 15 35 52 -17 39 39–39 10–11
12 Santa Clara 34 9 9 16 32 41 -9 36 36–36 12–13
13 Rio Ave 34 8 12 14 35 57 -22 36 36–36 12–13
14 CD Nacional 34 9 7 18 37 45 -8 34 34–34 14–14
15 Amadora 34 6 12 16 38 56 -18 30 30–30 15–16
16 Casa Pia 34 6 12 16 31 57 -26 30 30–30 15–16
17 Tondela 34 6 10 18 27 55 -28 28 28–28 17–17
18 AVS 34 3 12 19 27 67 -40 21 21–21 18–18
GlobalRateModel (home: 46.0%, draw: 25.0%, away: 29.0%)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last
1 Porto 1.0 1–1 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Sporting CP 2.0 2–2 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 SL Benfica 3.0 3–3 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Braga 4.0 4–4 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Famalicão 5.0 5–5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Gil Vicente 6.0 6–6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Moreirense 7.0 7–7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Vitória SC 8.5 8–9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Arouca 8.5 8–9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Estoril Praia 10.5 10–11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11 Alverca 10.5 10–11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 Santa Clara 12.5 12–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13 Rio Ave 12.5 12–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 CD Nacional 14.0 14–14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 Amadora 15.5 15–16 0.0% 0.0% 49.9% 0.0%
16 Casa Pia 15.5 15–16 0.0% 0.0% 50.1% 0.0%
17 Tondela 17.0 17–17 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
18 AVS 18.0 18–18 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%
SeasonRateModel (home: 41.2%, draw: 27.1%, away: 31.7%)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last
1 Porto 1.0 1–1 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Sporting CP 2.0 2–2 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 SL Benfica 3.0 3–3 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Braga 4.0 4–4 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Famalicão 5.0 5–5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Gil Vicente 6.0 6–6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Moreirense 7.0 7–7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Vitória SC 8.5 8–9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Arouca 8.5 8–9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Estoril Praia 10.5 10–11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11 Alverca 10.5 10–11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 Rio Ave 12.5 12–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13 Santa Clara 12.5 12–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 CD Nacional 14.0 14–14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 Amadora 15.5 15–16 0.0% 0.0% 49.8% 0.0%
16 Casa Pia 15.5 15–16 0.0% 0.0% 50.2% 0.0%
17 Tondela 17.0 17–17 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
18 AVS 18.0 18–18 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%
PoissonModel (home avg: 1.53, away avg: 1.07, half-life: 10)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last AtkDef
1 Porto 1.0 1–1 88–88+48–+48 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.160.65
2 Sporting CP 2.0 2–2 82–82+65–+65 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.380.55
3 SL Benfica 3.0 3–3 80–80+49–+49 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.921.00
4 Braga 4.0 4–4 59–59+28–+28 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.391.21
5 Famalicão 5.0 5–5 56–56+13–+13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.690.38
6 Gil Vicente 6.0 6–6 50–50+9–+9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.601.52
7 Moreirense 7.0 7–7 43–43-12–-12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.481.00
8 Vitória SC 8.0 8–8 42–42-12–-12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.501.20
9 Arouca 9.0 9–9 42–42-17–-17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.721.07
10 Estoril Praia 10.0 10–10 39–39-3–-3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.871.53
11 Alverca 11.0 11–11 39–39-17–-17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.540.92
12 Santa Clara 12.0 12–12 36–36-9–-9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.800.63
13 Rio Ave 13.0 13–13 36–36-22–-22 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.701.44
14 CD Nacional 14.0 14–14 34–34-8–-8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.730.82
15 Amadora 15.0 15–15 30–30-18–-18 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.921.01
16 Casa Pia 16.0 16–16 30–30-26–-26 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.680.86
17 Tondela 17.0 17–17 28–28-28–-28 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.901.03
18 AVS 18.0 18–18 21–21-40–-40 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.870.84
DixonColesModel (home avg: 1.53, away avg: 1.07, rho: 0.000, half-life: 10)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last AtkDef
1 Porto 1.0 1–1 88–88+48–+48 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.160.65
2 Sporting CP 2.0 2–2 82–82+65–+65 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.380.55
3 SL Benfica 3.0 3–3 80–80+49–+49 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.921.00
4 Braga 4.0 4–4 59–59+28–+28 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.391.21
5 Famalicão 5.0 5–5 56–56+13–+13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.690.38
6 Gil Vicente 6.0 6–6 50–50+9–+9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.601.52
7 Moreirense 7.0 7–7 43–43-12–-12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.481.00
8 Vitória SC 8.0 8–8 42–42-12–-12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.501.20
9 Arouca 9.0 9–9 42–42-17–-17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.721.07
10 Estoril Praia 10.0 10–10 39–39-3–-3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.871.53
11 Alverca 11.0 11–11 39–39-17–-17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.540.92
12 Santa Clara 12.0 12–12 36–36-9–-9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.800.63
13 Rio Ave 13.0 13–13 36–36-22–-22 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.701.44
14 CD Nacional 14.0 14–14 34–34-8–-8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.730.82
15 Amadora 15.0 15–15 30–30-18–-18 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.921.01
16 Casa Pia 16.0 16–16 30–30-26–-26 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.680.86
17 Tondela 17.0 17–17 28–28-28–-28 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.901.03
18 AVS 18.0 18–18 21–21-40–-40 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.870.84
NegBinModel (home avg: 1.53, away avg: 1.07, alpha: 0.073, half-life: 10)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last AtkDef
1 Porto 1.0 1–1 88–88+48–+48 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.160.65
2 Sporting CP 2.0 2–2 82–82+65–+65 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.380.55
3 SL Benfica 3.0 3–3 80–80+49–+49 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.921.00
4 Braga 4.0 4–4 59–59+28–+28 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.391.21
5 Famalicão 5.0 5–5 56–56+13–+13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.690.38
6 Gil Vicente 6.0 6–6 50–50+9–+9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.601.52
7 Moreirense 7.0 7–7 43–43-12–-12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.481.00
8 Vitória SC 8.0 8–8 42–42-12–-12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.501.20
9 Arouca 9.0 9–9 42–42-17–-17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.721.07
10 Estoril Praia 10.0 10–10 39–39-3–-3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.871.53
11 Alverca 11.0 11–11 39–39-17–-17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.540.92
12 Santa Clara 12.0 12–12 36–36-9–-9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.800.63
13 Rio Ave 13.0 13–13 36–36-22–-22 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.701.44
14 CD Nacional 14.0 14–14 34–34-8–-8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.730.82
15 Amadora 15.0 15–15 30–30-18–-18 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.921.01
16 Casa Pia 16.0 16–16 30–30-26–-26 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.680.86
17 Tondela 17.0 17–17 28–28-28–-28 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.901.03
18 AVS 18.0 18–18 21–21-40–-40 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.870.84
EloModel (K=20, home adv: 50 Elo pts, draw rate: 27.1%)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last Elo
1 Porto 1.0 1–1 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1658
2 Sporting CP 2.0 2–2 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1672
3 SL Benfica 3.0 3–3 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1655
4 Braga 4.0 4–4 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1574
5 Famalicão 5.0 5–5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1550
6 Gil Vicente 6.0 6–6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1508
7 Moreirense 7.0 7–7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1461
8 Arouca 8.5 8–9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1477
9 Vitória SC 8.5 8–9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1458
10 Alverca 10.5 10–11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1458
11 Estoril Praia 10.5 10–11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1479
12 Rio Ave 12.5 12–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1438
13 Santa Clara 12.5 12–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1468
14 CD Nacional 14.0 14–14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1459
15 Amadora 15.5 15–16 0.0% 0.0% 49.9% 0.0% 1434
16 Casa Pia 15.5 15–16 0.0% 0.0% 50.1% 0.0% 1419
17 Tondela 17.0 17–17 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1418
18 AVS 18.0 18–18 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1413
EloPoissonModel (K=20, MoV-scaled, home adv: 50 Elo pts, home avg: 1.50, away avg: 1.19)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last Elo
1 Porto 1.0 1–1 88–88+48–+48 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1658
2 Sporting CP 2.0 2–2 82–82+65–+65 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1672
3 SL Benfica 3.0 3–3 80–80+49–+49 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1655
4 Braga 4.0 4–4 59–59+28–+28 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1574
5 Famalicão 5.0 5–5 56–56+13–+13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1550
6 Gil Vicente 6.0 6–6 50–50+9–+9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1508
7 Moreirense 7.0 7–7 43–43-12–-12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1461
8 Vitória SC 8.0 8–8 42–42-12–-12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1458
9 Arouca 9.0 9–9 42–42-17–-17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1477
10 Estoril Praia 10.0 10–10 39–39-3–-3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1479
11 Alverca 11.0 11–11 39–39-17–-17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1458
12 Santa Clara 12.0 12–12 36–36-9–-9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1468
13 Rio Ave 13.0 13–13 36–36-22–-22 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1438
14 CD Nacional 14.0 14–14 34–34-8–-8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1459
15 Amadora 15.0 15–15 30–30-18–-18 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1434
16 Casa Pia 16.0 16–16 30–30-26–-26 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1419
17 Tondela 17.0 17–17 28–28-28–-28 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1418
18 AVS 18.0 18–18 21–21-40–-40 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1413
Top 4
Bottom 3
Generated 2026-06-10 19:18
Disclaimer: These are simulated statistical models for entertainment purposes only. Results are based on publicly available data and are believed to be accurate, but no guarantees are made.