Serie A

360 matches played 20 remaining 100,000 simulations per model
Current league table — 360 matches played, 20 remaining
# Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts Pts Range Pos Range
1 Inter 36 27 4 5 85 31 +54 85 85–91 1–1
2 Napoli 36 21 7 8 54 36 +18 70 70–76 2–6
3 Juventus 36 19 11 6 59 30 +29 68 68–74 2–6
4 Roma 36 21 4 11 55 31 +24 67 67–73 2–6
5 Milan 36 19 10 7 50 32 +18 67 67–73 2–6
6 Como 1907 36 18 11 7 60 28 +32 65 65–71 2–6
7 Atalanta 36 15 13 8 50 34 +16 58 58–64 7–8
8 Bologna 36 15 7 14 45 43 +2 52 52–58 7–11
9 Lazio 36 13 12 11 39 37 +2 51 51–57 8–11
10 Udinese 36 14 8 14 45 46 -1 50 50–56 8–12
11 Sassuolo 36 14 7 15 44 46 -2 49 49–55 8–12
12 Torino 36 12 8 16 41 59 -18 44 44–50 10–15
13 Parma 36 10 12 14 27 45 -18 42 42–48 12–16
14 Genoa 36 10 11 15 40 48 -8 41 41–47 12–16
15 Fiorentina 36 8 14 14 38 49 -11 38 38–44 12–17
16 Cagliari 36 9 10 17 36 51 -15 37 37–43 13–18
17 Lecce 36 8 8 20 24 48 -24 32 32–38 15–18
18 Cremonese 36 7 10 19 30 53 -23 31 31–37 16–18
19 Verona 36 3 11 22 24 58 -34 20 20–26 19–20
20 AC Pisa 36 2 12 22 25 66 -41 18 18–24 19–20
GlobalRateModel (home: 46.0%, draw: 25.0%, away: 29.0%)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last
1 Inter 1.0 1–1 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Napoli 2.5 2–5 0.0% 96.4% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Juventus 3.6 2–6 0.0% 76.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Roma 4.3 2–6 0.0% 54.9% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Milan 4.3 2–6 0.0% 54.8% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Como 1907 5.4 3–6 0.0% 17.7% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Atalanta 7.0 7–8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Bologna 8.7 7–11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Lazio 9.2 8–11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Udinese 9.8 8–11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11 Sassuolo 10.3 8–12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 Torino 12.3 11–14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13 Parma 13.2 12–15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 Genoa 13.7 12–15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 Fiorentina 15.2 13–16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Cagliari 15.6 14–17 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
17 Lecce 17.3 16–18 0.0% 0.0% 34.5% 0.0%
18 Cremonese 17.6 17–18 0.0% 0.0% 65.4% 0.0%
19 Verona 19.2 19–20 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 24.1%
20 AC Pisa 19.8 19–20 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 75.9%
SeasonRateModel (home: 39.2%, draw: 26.4%, away: 34.4%)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last
1 Inter 1.0 1–1 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Napoli 2.5 2–5 0.0% 96.5% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Juventus 3.6 2–6 0.0% 76.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Roma 4.2 2–6 0.0% 54.9% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Milan 4.3 2–6 0.0% 54.8% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Como 1907 5.4 3–6 0.0% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Atalanta 7.0 7–8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Bologna 8.7 7–11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Lazio 9.2 8–11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Udinese 9.8 8–11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11 Sassuolo 10.3 8–12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 Torino 12.3 11–14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13 Parma 13.2 12–15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 Genoa 13.7 12–15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 Fiorentina 15.2 13–16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Cagliari 15.6 14–17 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
17 Lecce 17.3 16–18 0.0% 0.0% 34.6% 0.0%
18 Cremonese 17.6 17–18 0.0% 0.0% 65.3% 0.0%
19 Verona 19.2 19–20 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 24.4%
20 AC Pisa 19.8 19–20 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 75.6%
PoissonModel (home avg: 1.29, away avg: 1.30, half-life: 10)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last AtkDef
1 Inter 1.0 1–1 87–91+54–+62 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.950.42
2 Juventus 2.8 2–5 70–74+29–+37 0.0% 93.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.960.41
3 Roma 3.3 2–6 69–73+24–+32 0.0% 83.7% 0.0% 0.0% 2.080.73
4 Napoli 3.7 2–6 70–76+12–+21 0.0% 72.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.970.97
5 Milan 4.9 2–6 67–73+15–+22 0.0% 30.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.831.30
6 Como 1907 5.3 3–6 66–71+31–+37 0.0% 20.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.900.40
7 Atalanta 7.0 7–7 58–64+13–+19 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.080.83
8 Udinese 8.5 8–11 53–56-2–+9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.340.61
9 Lazio 9.4 8–11 51–57-2–+6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.991.28
10 Bologna 9.6 8–11 52–56-3–+4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.090.99
11 Sassuolo 10.4 8–11 49–55-6–+3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.050.79
12 Torino 12.6 12–14 44–48-23–-16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.861.14
13 Genoa 13.2 12–15 41–47-11–-5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.440.85
14 Parma 13.3 12–15 42–46-23–-15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.731.44
15 Cagliari 15.4 14–16 37–43-18–-11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.501.03
16 Fiorentina 15.5 15–16 38–42-19–-10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.361.23
17 Lecce 17.2 17–18 32–36-28–-22 0.0% 0.0% 19.2% 0.0% 0.500.84
18 Cremonese 17.8 17–18 31–34-31–-23 0.0% 0.0% 80.8% 0.0% 0.811.42
19 Verona 19.2 19–20 20–23-43–-34 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 16.1% 0.430.92
20 AC Pisa 19.8 19–20 18–22-47–-40 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 83.9% 0.441.71
DixonColesModel (home avg: 1.29, away avg: 1.30, rho: 0.000, half-life: 10)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last AtkDef
1 Inter 1.0 1–1 87–91+54–+62 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.950.42
2 Juventus 2.8 2–5 70–74+29–+37 0.0% 93.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.960.41
3 Roma 3.3 2–6 69–73+24–+32 0.0% 83.8% 0.0% 0.0% 2.080.73
4 Napoli 3.7 2–6 70–76+12–+21 0.0% 72.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.970.97
5 Milan 4.9 2–6 67–73+15–+22 0.0% 30.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.831.30
6 Como 1907 5.3 3–6 66–71+31–+37 0.0% 20.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.900.40
7 Atalanta 7.0 7–7 58–64+13–+19 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.080.83
8 Udinese 8.5 8–11 53–56-2–+9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.340.61
9 Lazio 9.5 8–11 51–57-2–+6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.991.28
10 Bologna 9.6 8–11 52–56-3–+4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.090.99
11 Sassuolo 10.4 8–11 49–55-6–+3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.050.79
12 Torino 12.6 12–14 44–48-23–-16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.861.14
13 Genoa 13.2 12–15 41–47-11–-5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.440.85
14 Parma 13.3 12–15 42–48-23–-15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.731.44
15 Cagliari 15.4 14–16 37–43-18–-11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.501.03
16 Fiorentina 15.5 15–16 38–42-19–-10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.361.23
17 Lecce 17.2 17–18 32–36-28–-22 0.0% 0.0% 19.3% 0.0% 0.500.84
18 Cremonese 17.8 17–18 31–34-31–-23 0.0% 0.0% 80.7% 0.0% 0.811.42
19 Verona 19.2 19–20 20–23-43–-34 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 16.2% 0.430.92
20 AC Pisa 19.8 19–20 18–22-47–-40 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 83.8% 0.441.71
NegBinModel (home avg: 1.29, away avg: 1.30, alpha: 0.061, half-life: 10)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last AtkDef
1 Inter 1.0 1–1 87–91+54–+62 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.950.42
2 Juventus 2.8 2–5 70–74+28–+38 0.0% 92.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.960.41
3 Roma 3.4 2–6 69–73+23–+32 0.0% 82.8% 0.0% 0.0% 2.080.73
4 Napoli 3.7 2–6 70–76+11–+22 0.0% 73.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.970.97
5 Milan 4.9 2–6 67–73+15–+22 0.0% 30.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.831.30
6 Como 1907 5.3 3–6 66–71+31–+37 0.0% 20.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.900.40
7 Atalanta 7.0 7–7 58–64+13–+19 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.080.83
8 Udinese 8.6 8–11 52–56-2–+10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.340.61
9 Lazio 9.4 8–11 51–57-3–+7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.991.28
10 Bologna 9.6 8–11 52–56-3–+4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.090.99
11 Sassuolo 10.4 8–11 49–55-6–+3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.050.79
12 Torino 12.6 12–14 44–48-23–-16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.861.14
13 Genoa 13.2 12–15 41–47-11–-5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.440.85
14 Parma 13.3 12–15 42–48-23–-15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.731.44
15 Cagliari 15.4 14–16 37–43-19–-11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.501.03
16 Fiorentina 15.5 15–16 38–42-19–-10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.361.23
17 Lecce 17.2 17–18 32–36-29–-22 0.0% 0.0% 19.6% 0.0% 0.500.84
18 Cremonese 17.8 17–18 31–34-31–-22 0.0% 0.0% 80.4% 0.0% 0.811.42
19 Verona 19.2 19–20 20–23-43–-34 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 16.6% 0.430.92
20 AC Pisa 19.8 19–20 18–22-47–-39 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 83.4% 0.441.71
EloModel (K=20, home adv: 50 Elo pts, draw rate: 26.4%)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last Elo
1 Inter 1.0 1–1 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1668
2 Napoli 2.6 2–5 0.0% 94.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1564
3 Juventus 3.6 2–6 0.0% 76.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1592
4 Roma 4.2 2–6 0.0% 56.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1580
5 Milan 4.4 2–6 0.0% 49.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1555
6 Como 1907 5.2 3–6 0.0% 23.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1594
7 Atalanta 7.0 7–7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1556
8 Lazio 9.1 8–11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1509
9 Bologna 9.2 8–11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1491
10 Udinese 9.7 8–11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1518
11 Sassuolo 10.1 8–11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1503
12 Torino 12.3 12–14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1465
13 Parma 13.3 12–15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1453
14 Genoa 13.6 12–15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1477
15 Fiorentina 15.2 13–16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1471
16 Cagliari 15.6 14–17 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1438
17 Lecce 17.2 16–18 0.0% 0.0% 27.2% 0.0% 1418
18 Cremonese 17.7 17–18 0.0% 0.0% 72.8% 0.0% 1411
19 Verona 19.3 19–20 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 26.5% 1375
20 AC Pisa 19.7 19–20 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 73.5% 1361
EloPoissonModel (K=20, MoV-scaled, home adv: 50 Elo pts, home avg: 1.29, away avg: 1.13)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last Elo
1 Inter 1.0 1–1 86–91+53–+61 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1668
2 Napoli 2.7 2–5 70–76+16–+24 0.0% 92.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1564
3 Juventus 3.5 2–6 68–74+26–+35 0.0% 78.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1592
4 Roma 4.1 2–6 67–73+22–+30 0.0% 59.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1580
5 Milan 4.7 2–6 67–73+15–+24 0.0% 39.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1555
6 Como 1907 5.1 3–6 66–71+30–+39 0.0% 29.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1594
7 Atalanta 7.0 7–7 58–64+13–+21 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1556
8 Lazio 8.9 8–11 51–57-2–+7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1509
9 Bologna 9.3 8–11 52–58-4–+5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1491
10 Udinese 9.7 8–11 50–56-5–+4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1518
11 Sassuolo 10.1 8–11 49–55-5–+3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1503
12 Torino 12.4 12–14 44–50-23–-14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1465
13 Genoa 13.3 12–15 41–47-12–-4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1477
14 Parma 13.4 12–15 42–48-24–-15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1453
15 Fiorentina 15.2 14–16 38–44-17–-8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1471
16 Cagliari 15.6 14–16 37–43-20–-12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1438
17 Lecce 17.3 17–18 32–38-29–-21 0.0% 0.0% 27.4% 0.0% 1418
18 Cremonese 17.7 17–18 31–37-29–-21 0.0% 0.0% 72.6% 0.0% 1411
19 Verona 19.1 19–20 20–24-41–-33 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 14.7% 1375
20 AC Pisa 19.9 19–20 18–22-48–-39 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 85.3% 1361
Top 4
Bottom 3
Generated 2026-05-12 14:10
Disclaimer: These are simulated statistical models for entertainment purposes only. Results are based on publicly available data and are believed to be accurate, but no guarantees are made.