Premier League

359 matches played 21 remaining 100,000 simulations per model
Current league table — 359 matches played, 21 remaining
# Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts Pts Range Pos Range
1 Arsenal 36 24 7 5 68 26 +42 79 79–85 1–2
2 Man City 35 22 8 5 72 32 +40 74 74–83 1–2
3 Man United 36 18 11 7 63 48 +15 65 65–71 3–4
4 Liverpool 36 17 8 11 60 48 +12 59 59–65 3–7
5 Aston Villa 36 17 8 11 50 46 +4 59 59–65 3–7
6 Bournemouth 36 13 16 7 56 52 +4 55 55–61 4–10
7 Brighton Hove 36 14 11 11 52 42 +10 53 53–59 5–12
8 Brentford 36 14 9 13 52 49 +3 51 51–57 6–14
9 Chelsea 36 13 10 13 55 49 +6 49 49–55 6–16
10 Everton 36 13 10 13 46 46 0 49 49–55 6–16
11 Fulham 36 14 6 16 44 50 -6 48 48–54 7–16
12 Sunderland 36 12 12 12 37 46 -9 48 48–54 7–16
13 Newcastle 36 13 7 16 50 52 -2 46 46–52 8–16
14 Leeds United 36 10 14 12 48 53 -5 44 44–50 9–17
15 Crystal Palace 35 11 11 13 38 44 -6 44 44–53 7–17
16 Nottingham 36 11 10 15 45 47 -2 43 43–49 10–17
17 Tottenham 36 9 11 16 46 55 -9 38 38–44 14–18
18 West Ham 36 9 9 18 42 62 -20 36 36–42 17–18
19 Burnley 36 4 9 23 37 73 -36 21 21–27 19–20
20 Wolverhampton 36 3 9 24 25 66 -41 18 18–24 19–20
GlobalRateModel (home: 46.0%, draw: 25.0%, away: 29.0%)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last
1 Arsenal 1.1 1–2 86.4% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Man City 1.9 1–2 13.6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Man United 3.0 3–3 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Aston Villa 4.5 4–6 0.0% 51.7% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Liverpool 4.6 4–6 0.0% 47.5% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Bournemouth 6.2 5–8 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Brighton Hove 7.2 6–9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Brentford 8.5 6–11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Everton 10.2 7–14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Chelsea 10.2 7–14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11 Sunderland 11.1 8–14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 Fulham 11.2 8–15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13 Newcastle 12.9 9–16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 Crystal Palace 13.7 9–16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 Leeds United 14.6 12–16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Nottingham 15.2 12–17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
17 Tottenham 17.2 16–18 0.0% 0.0% 24.0% 0.0%
18 West Ham 17.8 17–18 0.0% 0.0% 76.0% 0.0%
19 Burnley 19.2 19–20 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 20.1%
20 Wolverhampton 19.8 19–20 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 79.9%
SeasonRateModel (home: 42.1%, draw: 27.3%, away: 30.6%)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last
1 Arsenal 1.1 1–2 87.5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Man City 1.9 1–2 12.5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Man United 3.0 3–3 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Aston Villa 4.5 4–6 0.0% 51.3% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Liverpool 4.6 4–6 0.0% 47.8% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Bournemouth 6.2 5–8 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Brighton Hove 7.2 6–9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Brentford 8.5 6–11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Everton 10.2 7–14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Chelsea 10.2 7–14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11 Sunderland 11.1 8–14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 Fulham 11.2 8–15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13 Newcastle 12.9 9–16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 Crystal Palace 13.6 9–16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 Leeds United 14.6 11–16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Nottingham 15.2 13–17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
17 Tottenham 17.2 16–18 0.0% 0.0% 23.8% 0.0%
18 West Ham 17.8 17–18 0.0% 0.0% 76.2% 0.0%
19 Burnley 19.2 19–20 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 19.8%
20 Wolverhampton 19.8 19–20 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 80.2%
PoissonModel (home avg: 1.58, away avg: 1.14, half-life: 10)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last AtkDef
1 Arsenal 1.1 1–2 82–85+43–+52 94.5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.190.24
2 Man City 1.9 1–2 78–83+39–+52 5.5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.860.70
3 Man United 3.2 3–4 65–69+7–+17 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.990.81
4 Liverpool 3.9 3–5 60–65+9–+20 0.0% 90.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1.301.14
5 Aston Villa 5.3 4–6 59–63-5–+6 0.0% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.141.32
6 Bournemouth 5.7 5–7 55–61+1–+11 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.280.52
7 Brighton Hove 7.2 6–9 53–59+4–+13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.360.81
8 Brentford 8.1 7–10 52–57-1–+9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.920.97
9 Everton 10.0 7–14 49–55-5–+6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.411.55
10 Chelsea 10.3 8–13 49–530–+8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.751.44
11 Newcastle 11.4 9–14 47–52-3–+5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.090.94
12 Sunderland 11.8 9–15 48–54-14–-5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.690.96
13 Fulham 12.3 9–14 48–52-10–-4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.331.07
14 Leeds United 13.3 11–15 45–50-7–+3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.250.79
15 Nottingham 14.8 12–16 43–49-5–+5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.620.75
16 Crystal Palace 16.0 15–17 44–47-21–-9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.741.44
17 Tottenham 16.9 16–17 39–44-12–-2 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.990.85
18 West Ham 18.0 18–18 36–40-28–-19 0.0% 0.0% 99.1% 0.0% 0.371.13
19 Burnley 19.1 19–20 22–25-43–-33 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 5.7% 0.891.71
20 Wolverhampton 19.9 19–20 18–22-46–-39 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 94.3% 0.301.38
DixonColesModel (home avg: 1.58, away avg: 1.14, rho: -0.090, half-life: 10)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last AtkDef
1 Arsenal 1.1 1–2 82–85+43–+52 94.7% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.190.24
2 Man City 1.9 1–2 78–83+39–+52 5.3% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.860.70
3 Man United 3.2 3–4 65–69+7–+17 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.990.81
4 Liverpool 4.0 3–5 60–65+9–+20 0.0% 90.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1.301.14
5 Aston Villa 5.3 4–6 59–63-5–+6 0.0% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.141.32
6 Bournemouth 5.7 5–7 55–61+1–+11 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.280.52
7 Brighton Hove 7.1 6–9 53–59+4–+13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.360.81
8 Brentford 8.1 7–10 52–57-1–+9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.920.97
9 Everton 10.0 7–14 49–55-5–+6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.411.55
10 Chelsea 10.3 8–13 49–530–+8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.751.44
11 Newcastle 11.4 9–14 47–52-3–+5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.090.94
12 Sunderland 11.8 9–15 48–54-14–-5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.690.96
13 Fulham 12.3 9–14 48–52-10–-4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.331.07
14 Leeds United 13.3 11–15 45–50-7–+3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.250.79
15 Nottingham 14.8 12–16 43–49-5–+5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.620.75
16 Crystal Palace 16.0 15–17 44–47-21–-9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.741.44
17 Tottenham 16.9 16–17 39–44-12–-2 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.990.85
18 West Ham 18.0 18–18 36–40-28–-19 0.0% 0.0% 99.2% 0.0% 0.371.13
19 Burnley 19.1 19–20 22–25-43–-33 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 5.6% 0.891.71
20 Wolverhampton 19.9 19–20 18–22-46–-39 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 94.4% 0.301.38
NegBinModel (home avg: 1.58, away avg: 1.14, alpha: 0.000, half-life: 10)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last AtkDef
1 Arsenal 1.1 1–2 82–85+43–+52 94.6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.190.24
2 Man City 1.9 1–2 78–83+39–+52 5.4% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.860.70
3 Man United 3.2 3–4 65–69+7–+17 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.990.81
4 Liverpool 4.0 3–5 60–65+9–+20 0.0% 90.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1.301.14
5 Aston Villa 5.3 4–6 59–63-5–+6 0.0% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.141.32
6 Bournemouth 5.7 5–7 55–61+1–+11 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.280.52
7 Brighton Hove 7.1 6–9 53–59+4–+13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.360.81
8 Brentford 8.1 7–10 52–57-1–+9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.920.97
9 Everton 10.0 7–14 49–55-5–+6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.411.55
10 Chelsea 10.3 8–13 49–530–+8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.751.44
11 Newcastle 11.4 9–14 47–52-3–+5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.090.94
12 Sunderland 11.8 9–15 48–54-14–-5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.690.96
13 Fulham 12.3 9–15 48–52-10–-4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.331.07
14 Leeds United 13.3 11–15 45–50-7–+3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.250.79
15 Nottingham 14.8 12–16 43–49-5–+5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.620.75
16 Crystal Palace 16.0 15–17 44–47-21–-9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.741.44
17 Tottenham 16.9 16–17 39–44-12–-2 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.990.85
18 West Ham 18.0 18–18 36–40-28–-19 0.0% 0.0% 99.1% 0.0% 0.371.13
19 Burnley 19.1 19–20 22–25-43–-33 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 5.7% 0.891.71
20 Wolverhampton 19.9 19–20 18–22-46–-39 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 94.3% 0.301.38
EloModel (K=20, home adv: 50 Elo pts, draw rate: 27.3%)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last Elo
1 Arsenal 1.1 1–2 88.3% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1632
2 Man City 1.9 1–2 11.7% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1626
3 Man United 3.0 3–3 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1567
4 Liverpool 4.5 4–6 0.0% 56.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1538
5 Aston Villa 4.6 4–6 0.0% 42.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1508
6 Bournemouth 6.3 5–8 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1535
7 Brighton Hove 7.2 6–10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1531
8 Brentford 8.6 6–11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1507
9 Everton 10.0 7–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1501
10 Chelsea 10.0 7–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1495
11 Fulham 10.9 8–14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1484
12 Sunderland 11.3 8–14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1467
13 Newcastle 12.7 9–16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1489
14 Crystal Palace 14.3 11–16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1468
15 Leeds United 14.4 12–16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1502
16 Nottingham 15.2 13–17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1506
17 Tottenham 17.2 16–18 0.0% 0.0% 24.1% 0.0% 1449
18 West Ham 17.8 17–18 0.0% 0.0% 75.9% 0.0% 1450
19 Burnley 19.3 19–20 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 25.1% 1372
20 Wolverhampton 19.7 19–20 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 74.9% 1375
EloPoissonModel (K=20, MoV-scaled, home adv: 50 Elo pts, home avg: 1.52, away avg: 1.23)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last Elo
1 Arsenal 1.1 1–2 80–85+41–+50 87.1% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1632
2 Man City 1.9 1–2 76–83+38–+49 12.9% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1626
3 Man United 3.0 3–3 65–71+11–+20 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1567
4 Liverpool 4.3 4–6 59–65+8–+17 0.0% 69.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1538
5 Aston Villa 4.8 4–6 59–65-2–+7 0.0% 29.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1508
6 Bournemouth 6.4 5–8 55–61-1–+8 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1535
7 Brighton Hove 7.0 5–9 53–59+5–+15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1531
8 Brentford 8.5 6–11 51–57-1–+8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1507
9 Chelsea 9.6 7–13 49–55+2–+11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1495
10 Everton 10.0 7–13 49–55-4–+5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1501
11 Fulham 10.9 8–14 48–54-10–-1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1484
12 Sunderland 11.7 8–14 48–54-14–-5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1467
13 Newcastle 12.5 9–15 46–52-6–+3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1489
14 Leeds United 14.2 12–16 44–50-9–0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1502
15 Crystal Palace 14.9 12–16 44–50-15–-4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1468
16 Nottingham 15.1 12–16 43–49-7–+2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1506
17 Tottenham 17.1 16–18 38–44-14–-5 0.0% 0.0% 18.7% 0.0% 1449
18 West Ham 17.8 17–18 36–42-25–-16 0.0% 0.0% 81.3% 0.0% 1450
19 Burnley 19.2 19–20 21–25-42–-33 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 18.1% 1372
20 Wolverhampton 19.8 19–20 18–24-46–-37 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 81.9% 1375
Top 4
Bottom 3
Generated 2026-05-12 14:01
Disclaimer: These are simulated statistical models for entertainment purposes only. Results are based on publicly available data and are believed to be accurate, but no guarantees are made.