Premier League

380 matches played 0 remaining 100,000 simulations per model
Current league table — 380 matches played, 0 remaining
# Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts Pts Range Pos Range
1 Arsenal 38 26 7 5 71 27 +44 85 85–85 1–1
2 Man City 38 23 9 6 77 35 +42 78 78–78 2–2
3 Man United 38 20 11 7 69 50 +19 71 71–71 3–3
4 Aston Villa 38 19 8 11 56 49 +7 65 65–65 4–4
5 Liverpool 38 17 9 12 63 53 +10 60 60–60 5–5
6 Bournemouth 38 13 18 7 58 54 +4 57 57–57 6–6
7 Sunderland 38 14 12 12 42 48 -6 54 54–54 7–7
8 Brighton Hove 38 14 11 13 52 46 +6 53 53–53 8–9
9 Brentford 38 14 11 13 55 52 +3 53 53–53 8–9
10 Chelsea 38 14 10 14 58 52 +6 52 52–52 10–11
11 Fulham 38 15 7 16 47 51 -4 52 52–52 10–11
12 Newcastle 38 14 7 17 53 55 -2 49 49–49 12–13
13 Everton 38 13 10 15 47 50 -3 49 49–49 12–13
14 Leeds United 38 11 14 13 49 56 -7 47 47–47 14–14
15 Crystal Palace 38 11 12 15 41 51 -10 45 45–45 15–15
16 Nottingham 38 11 11 16 48 51 -3 44 44–44 16–16
17 Tottenham 38 10 11 17 48 57 -9 41 41–41 17–17
18 West Ham 38 10 9 19 46 65 -19 39 39–39 18–18
19 Burnley 38 4 10 24 38 75 -37 22 22–22 19–19
20 Wolverhampton 38 3 11 24 27 68 -41 20 20–20 20–20
GlobalRateModel (home: 46.0%, draw: 25.0%, away: 29.0%)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last
1 Arsenal 1.0 1–1 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Man City 2.0 2–2 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Man United 3.0 3–3 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Aston Villa 4.0 4–4 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Liverpool 5.0 5–5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Bournemouth 6.0 6–6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Sunderland 7.0 7–7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Brighton Hove 8.5 8–9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Brentford 8.5 8–9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Fulham 10.5 10–11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11 Chelsea 10.5 10–11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 Newcastle 12.5 12–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13 Everton 12.5 12–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 Leeds United 14.0 14–14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 Crystal Palace 15.0 15–15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Nottingham 16.0 16–16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
17 Tottenham 17.0 17–17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
18 West Ham 18.0 18–18 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
19 Burnley 19.0 19–19 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
20 Wolverhampton 20.0 20–20 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%
SeasonRateModel (home: 42.6%, draw: 27.4%, away: 30.0%)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last
1 Arsenal 1.0 1–1 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Man City 2.0 2–2 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Man United 3.0 3–3 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Aston Villa 4.0 4–4 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Liverpool 5.0 5–5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Bournemouth 6.0 6–6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Sunderland 7.0 7–7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Brentford 8.5 8–9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Brighton Hove 8.5 8–9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Fulham 10.5 10–11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11 Chelsea 10.5 10–11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 Everton 12.5 12–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13 Newcastle 12.5 12–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 Leeds United 14.0 14–14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 Crystal Palace 15.0 15–15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 Nottingham 16.0 16–16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
17 Tottenham 17.0 17–17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
18 West Ham 18.0 18–18 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
19 Burnley 19.0 19–19 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
20 Wolverhampton 20.0 20–20 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%
PoissonModel (home avg: 1.55, away avg: 1.06, half-life: 10)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last AtkDef
1 Arsenal 1.0 1–1 85–85+44–+44 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.260.34
2 Man City 2.0 2–2 78–78+42–+42 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.280.92
3 Man United 3.0 3–3 71–71+19–+19 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.820.91
4 Aston Villa 4.0 4–4 65–65+7–+7 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.671.22
5 Liverpool 5.0 5–5 60–60+10–+10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.271.42
6 Bournemouth 6.0 6–6 57–57+4–+4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.980.80
7 Sunderland 7.0 7–7 54–54-6–-6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.440.87
8 Brighton Hove 8.0 8–8 53–53+6–+6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.551.32
9 Brentford 9.0 9–9 53–53+3–+3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.061.13
10 Chelsea 10.0 10–10 52–52+6–+6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.041.18
11 Fulham 11.0 11–11 52–52-4–-4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.890.65
12 Newcastle 12.0 12–12 49–49-2–-2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.031.06
13 Everton 13.0 13–13 49–49-3–-3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.731.52
14 Leeds United 14.0 14–14 47–47-7–-7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.670.95
15 Crystal Palace 15.0 15–15 45–45-10–-10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.831.50
16 Nottingham 16.0 16–16 44–44-3–-3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.351.12
17 Tottenham 17.0 17–17 41–41-9–-9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.880.80
18 West Ham 18.0 18–18 39–39-19–-19 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1.081.08
19 Burnley 19.0 19–19 22–22-37–-37 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.541.14
20 Wolverhampton 20.0 20–20 20–20-41–-41 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.621.05
DixonColesModel (home avg: 1.55, away avg: 1.06, rho: -0.120, half-life: 10)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last AtkDef
1 Arsenal 1.0 1–1 85–85+44–+44 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.260.34
2 Man City 2.0 2–2 78–78+42–+42 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.280.92
3 Man United 3.0 3–3 71–71+19–+19 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.820.91
4 Aston Villa 4.0 4–4 65–65+7–+7 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.671.22
5 Liverpool 5.0 5–5 60–60+10–+10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.271.42
6 Bournemouth 6.0 6–6 57–57+4–+4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.980.80
7 Sunderland 7.0 7–7 54–54-6–-6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.440.87
8 Brighton Hove 8.0 8–8 53–53+6–+6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.551.32
9 Brentford 9.0 9–9 53–53+3–+3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.061.13
10 Chelsea 10.0 10–10 52–52+6–+6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.041.18
11 Fulham 11.0 11–11 52–52-4–-4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.890.65
12 Newcastle 12.0 12–12 49–49-2–-2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.031.06
13 Everton 13.0 13–13 49–49-3–-3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.731.52
14 Leeds United 14.0 14–14 47–47-7–-7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.670.95
15 Crystal Palace 15.0 15–15 45–45-10–-10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.831.50
16 Nottingham 16.0 16–16 44–44-3–-3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.351.12
17 Tottenham 17.0 17–17 41–41-9–-9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.880.80
18 West Ham 18.0 18–18 39–39-19–-19 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1.081.08
19 Burnley 19.0 19–19 22–22-37–-37 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.541.14
20 Wolverhampton 20.0 20–20 20–20-41–-41 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.621.05
NegBinModel (home avg: 1.55, away avg: 1.06, alpha: 0.000, half-life: 10)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last AtkDef
1 Arsenal 1.0 1–1 85–85+44–+44 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.260.34
2 Man City 2.0 2–2 78–78+42–+42 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.280.92
3 Man United 3.0 3–3 71–71+19–+19 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.820.91
4 Aston Villa 4.0 4–4 65–65+7–+7 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.671.22
5 Liverpool 5.0 5–5 60–60+10–+10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.271.42
6 Bournemouth 6.0 6–6 57–57+4–+4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.980.80
7 Sunderland 7.0 7–7 54–54-6–-6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.440.87
8 Brighton Hove 8.0 8–8 53–53+6–+6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.551.32
9 Brentford 9.0 9–9 53–53+3–+3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.061.13
10 Chelsea 10.0 10–10 52–52+6–+6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.041.18
11 Fulham 11.0 11–11 52–52-4–-4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.890.65
12 Newcastle 12.0 12–12 49–49-2–-2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.031.06
13 Everton 13.0 13–13 49–49-3–-3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.731.52
14 Leeds United 14.0 14–14 47–47-7–-7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.670.95
15 Crystal Palace 15.0 15–15 45–45-10–-10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.831.50
16 Nottingham 16.0 16–16 44–44-3–-3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.351.12
17 Tottenham 17.0 17–17 41–41-9–-9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.880.80
18 West Ham 18.0 18–18 39–39-19–-19 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1.081.08
19 Burnley 19.0 19–19 22–22-37–-37 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.541.14
20 Wolverhampton 20.0 20–20 20–20-41–-41 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.621.05
EloModel (K=20, home adv: 50 Elo pts, draw rate: 27.4%)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last Elo
1 Arsenal 1.0 1–1 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1639
2 Man City 2.0 2–2 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1621
3 Man United 3.0 3–3 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1586
4 Aston Villa 4.0 4–4 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1528
5 Liverpool 5.0 5–5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1525
6 Bournemouth 6.0 6–6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1536
7 Sunderland 7.0 7–7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1487
8 Brighton Hove 8.5 8–9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1510
9 Brentford 8.5 8–9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1506
10 Chelsea 10.5 10–11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1494
11 Fulham 10.5 10–11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1492
12 Everton 12.5 12–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1481
13 Newcastle 12.5 12–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1488
14 Leeds United 14.0 14–14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1494
15 Crystal Palace 15.0 15–15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1460
16 Nottingham 16.0 16–16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1501
17 Tottenham 17.0 17–17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1450
18 West Ham 18.0 18–18 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1456
19 Burnley 19.0 19–19 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1369
20 Wolverhampton 20.0 20–20 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1378
EloPoissonModel (K=20, MoV-scaled, home adv: 50 Elo pts, home avg: 1.53, away avg: 1.22)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last Elo
1 Arsenal 1.0 1–1 85–85+44–+44 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1639
2 Man City 2.0 2–2 78–78+42–+42 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1621
3 Man United 3.0 3–3 71–71+19–+19 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1586
4 Aston Villa 4.0 4–4 65–65+7–+7 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1528
5 Liverpool 5.0 5–5 60–60+10–+10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1525
6 Bournemouth 6.0 6–6 57–57+4–+4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1536
7 Sunderland 7.0 7–7 54–54-6–-6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1487
8 Brighton Hove 8.0 8–8 53–53+6–+6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1510
9 Brentford 9.0 9–9 53–53+3–+3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1506
10 Chelsea 10.0 10–10 52–52+6–+6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1494
11 Fulham 11.0 11–11 52–52-4–-4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1492
12 Newcastle 12.0 12–12 49–49-2–-2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1488
13 Everton 13.0 13–13 49–49-3–-3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1481
14 Leeds United 14.0 14–14 47–47-7–-7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1494
15 Crystal Palace 15.0 15–15 45–45-10–-10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1460
16 Nottingham 16.0 16–16 44–44-3–-3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1501
17 Tottenham 17.0 17–17 41–41-9–-9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1450
18 West Ham 18.0 18–18 39–39-19–-19 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1456
19 Burnley 19.0 19–19 22–22-37–-37 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1369
20 Wolverhampton 20.0 20–20 20–20-41–-41 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1378
Top 4
Bottom 3
Generated 2026-06-10 19:15
Disclaimer: These are simulated statistical models for entertainment purposes only. Results are based on publicly available data and are believed to be accurate, but no guarantees are made.