Eredivisie

296 matches played 10 remaining 100,000 simulations per model
Current league table — 296 matches played, 10 remaining
# Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts Pts Range Pos Range
1 PSV 33 26 3 4 96 44 +52 81 81–84 1–1
2 Feyenoord 33 18 8 7 68 44 +24 62 62–65 2–2
3 Twente 33 15 13 5 58 35 +23 58 58–61 3–5
4 NEC 33 15 11 7 75 52 +23 56 56–59 3–5
5 Ajax 33 14 13 6 62 41 +21 55 55–58 3–6
6 AZ 33 14 9 10 55 48 +7 51 51–54 6–8
7 Utrecht 33 14 8 11 53 42 +11 50 50–53 6–8
8 Heerenveen 32 14 8 10 57 51 +6 50 50–56 4–8
9 Groningen 33 13 6 14 47 44 +3 45 45–48 9–10
10 Sparta 33 12 7 14 38 59 -21 43 43–46 9–10
11 Sittard 33 11 6 16 49 61 -12 39 39–42 11–13
12 Go Ahead 33 8 14 11 53 51 +2 38 38–41 11–14
13 Zwolle 33 9 10 14 44 69 -25 37 37–40 11–15
14 Excelsior 33 9 8 16 40 54 -14 35 35–38 12–15
15 Telstar 33 8 10 15 47 54 -7 34 34–37 13–16
16 Volendam 33 8 8 17 34 53 -19 32 32–35 14–16
17 NAC 32 5 10 17 30 55 -25 25 25–31 17–17
18 Heracles 33 5 4 24 34 83 -49 19 19–22 18–18
GlobalRateModel (home: 46.0%, draw: 25.0%, away: 29.0%)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last
1 PSV 1.0 1–1 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Feyenoord 2.0 2–2 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Twente 3.3 3–5 0.0% 97.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 NEC 3.9 3–5 0.0% 78.6% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Ajax 4.9 3–6 0.0% 22.4% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Heerenveen 6.7 5–8 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0%
7 AZ 6.8 6–8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Utrecht 7.4 6–8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Groningen 9.3 9–10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Sparta 9.7 9–10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11 Sittard 11.5 11–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 Go Ahead 12.2 11–14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13 Zwolle 12.5 11–14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 Excelsior 14.2 12–15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 Telstar 15.2 13–16 0.0% 0.0% 45.8% 0.0%
16 Volendam 15.4 14–16 0.0% 0.0% 54.2% 0.0%
17 NAC 17.0 17–17 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
18 Heracles 18.0 18–18 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%
SeasonRateModel (home: 44.6%, draw: 26.4%, away: 29.1%)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last
1 PSV 1.0 1–1 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Feyenoord 2.0 2–2 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Twente 3.3 3–5 0.0% 97.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 NEC 4.0 3–5 0.0% 78.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Ajax 4.9 3–6 0.0% 22.8% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Heerenveen 6.7 5–8 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0%
7 AZ 6.8 6–8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Utrecht 7.4 6–8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Groningen 9.3 9–10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Sparta 9.7 9–10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
11 Sittard 11.5 11–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12 Go Ahead 12.2 11–14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13 Zwolle 12.5 11–14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 Excelsior 14.2 12–15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 Telstar 15.1 13–16 0.0% 0.0% 44.5% 0.0%
16 Volendam 15.5 14–16 0.0% 0.0% 55.5% 0.0%
17 NAC 17.0 17–17 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
18 Heracles 18.0 18–18 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%
PoissonModel (home avg: 1.89, away avg: 1.32, half-life: 10)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last AtkDef
1 PSV 1.0 1–1 81–84+49–+59 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.370.89
2 Feyenoord 2.0 2–2 62–65+22–+27 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.080.70
3 Twente 3.7 3–5 58–61+16–+26 0.0% 83.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.480.62
4 NEC 4.1 3–5 56–59+20–+26 0.0% 61.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.930.88
5 Ajax 4.3 3–6 55–58+19–+25 0.0% 54.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.190.78
6 AZ 6.4 6–8 51–54+6–+13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.930.81
7 Heerenveen 7.2 5–8 50–56+2–+11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.200.73
8 Utrecht 7.2 6–8 50–53+10–+17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.140.71
9 Groningen 9.0 9–9 45–48+2–+8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.931.07
10 Sparta 10.0 10–10 43–46-27–-18 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.571.53
11 Go Ahead 11.6 11–13 38–41-1–+5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.931.40
12 Sittard 11.8 11–13 39–42-18–-11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.911.23
13 Zwolle 13.2 11–15 37–40-28–-23 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.941.19
14 Excelsior 13.8 13–15 35–38-17–-8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.290.88
15 Telstar 14.7 13–16 34–37-9–-4 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 0.0% 1.090.69
16 Volendam 15.9 15–16 32–35-22–-17 0.0% 0.0% 86.5% 0.0% 0.530.91
17 NAC 17.0 17–17 25–28-33–-24 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.281.09
18 Heracles 18.0 18–18 19–22-54–-48 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.221.50
DixonColesModel (home avg: 1.89, away avg: 1.32, rho: -0.080, half-life: 10)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last AtkDef
1 PSV 1.0 1–1 81–84+49–+59 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.370.89
2 Feyenoord 2.0 2–2 62–65+22–+27 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.080.70
3 Twente 3.7 3–5 58–61+16–+26 0.0% 84.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.480.62
4 NEC 4.1 3–5 56–59+20–+26 0.0% 61.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.930.88
5 Ajax 4.3 3–6 55–58+19–+25 0.0% 54.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.190.78
6 AZ 6.4 6–8 51–54+6–+13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.930.81
7 Heerenveen 7.2 5–8 50–56+2–+11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.200.73
8 Utrecht 7.2 6–8 50–53+10–+17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.140.71
9 Groningen 9.0 9–9 45–48+2–+8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.931.07
10 Sparta 10.0 10–10 43–46-26–-18 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.571.53
11 Go Ahead 11.6 11–13 38–41-1–+5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.931.40
12 Sittard 11.8 11–13 39–42-18–-11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.911.23
13 Zwolle 13.2 11–15 37–40-28–-23 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.941.19
14 Excelsior 13.8 13–15 35–38-17–-9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.290.88
15 Telstar 14.7 13–16 34–37-9–-4 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% 1.090.69
16 Volendam 15.9 15–16 32–35-22–-17 0.0% 0.0% 87.4% 0.0% 0.530.91
17 NAC 17.0 17–17 25–28-33–-24 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.281.09
18 Heracles 18.0 18–18 19–22-54–-48 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.221.50
NegBinModel (home avg: 1.89, away avg: 1.32, alpha: 0.014, half-life: 10)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last AtkDef
1 PSV 1.0 1–1 81–84+49–+59 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.370.89
2 Feyenoord 2.0 2–2 62–65+22–+27 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.080.70
3 Twente 3.7 3–5 58–61+16–+26 0.0% 83.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.480.62
4 NEC 4.1 3–5 56–59+20–+26 0.0% 61.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.930.88
5 Ajax 4.3 3–6 55–58+19–+25 0.0% 54.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.190.78
6 AZ 6.4 6–8 51–54+6–+13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.930.81
7 Heerenveen 7.2 5–8 50–56+2–+11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.200.73
8 Utrecht 7.2 6–8 50–53+10–+17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.140.71
9 Groningen 9.0 9–9 45–48+2–+8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.931.07
10 Sparta 10.0 10–10 43–46-27–-18 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.571.53
11 Go Ahead 11.6 11–13 38–41-1–+5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.931.40
12 Sittard 11.8 11–13 39–42-18–-11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.911.23
13 Zwolle 13.2 11–15 37–40-28–-23 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.941.19
14 Excelsior 13.8 13–15 35–38-17–-8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.290.88
15 Telstar 14.7 13–16 34–37-9–-3 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 0.0% 1.090.69
16 Volendam 15.9 15–16 32–35-23–-17 0.0% 0.0% 86.5% 0.0% 0.530.91
17 NAC 17.0 17–17 25–28-33–-24 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.281.09
18 Heracles 18.0 18–18 19–22-54–-48 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.221.50
EloModel (K=20, home adv: 50 Elo pts, draw rate: 26.4%)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last Elo
1 PSV 1.0 1–1 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1656
2 Feyenoord 2.0 2–2 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1564
3 Twente 3.5 3–5 0.0% 94.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1580
4 NEC 3.9 3–5 0.0% 78.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1564
5 Ajax 4.9 3–6 0.0% 24.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1561
6 Heerenveen 6.6 4–8 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1536
7 AZ 6.7 6–8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1523
8 Utrecht 7.5 6–8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1539
9 Groningen 9.2 9–10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1503
10 Sparta 9.8 9–10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1451
11 Sittard 11.5 11–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1454
12 Go Ahead 12.1 11–14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1486
13 Zwolle 12.8 11–15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1443
14 Excelsior 14.1 12–15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1463
15 Telstar 15.0 13–16 0.0% 0.0% 37.7% 0.0% 1482
16 Volendam 15.5 14–16 0.0% 0.0% 62.3% 0.0% 1438
17 NAC 17.0 17–17 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1411
18 Heracles 18.0 18–18 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1348
EloPoissonModel (K=20, MoV-scaled, home adv: 50 Elo pts, home avg: 1.80, away avg: 1.38)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last Elo
1 PSV 1.0 1–1 81–84+50–+57 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1656
2 Feyenoord 2.0 2–2 62–65+21–+28 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1564
3 NEC 3.6 3–5 56–59+21–+28 0.0% 86.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1564
4 Twente 3.7 3–5 58–61+18–+25 0.0% 88.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1580
5 Ajax 4.9 3–6 55–58+17–+24 0.0% 25.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1561
6 AZ 6.7 6–8 51–54+5–+12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1523
7 Heerenveen 6.8 5–8 50–56+2–+12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1536
8 Utrecht 7.4 6–8 50–53+9–+16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1539
9 Groningen 9.1 9–10 45–48+1–+8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1503
10 Sparta 9.9 9–10 43–46-24–-17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1451
11 Sittard 11.4 11–13 39–42-17–-10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1454
12 Go Ahead 11.9 11–13 38–41-3–+4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1486
13 Zwolle 13.1 11–15 37–40-29–-22 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1443
14 Excelsior 14.2 13–15 35–38-18–-11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1463
15 Telstar 14.8 13–16 34–37-11–-4 0.0% 0.0% 39.6% 0.0% 1482
16 Volendam 15.6 14–16 32–35-22–-15 0.0% 0.0% 60.4% 0.0% 1438
17 NAC 17.0 17–17 25–31-32–-22 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1411
18 Heracles 18.0 18–18 19–22-54–-47 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1348
Top 4
Bottom 3
Generated 2026-05-12 14:14
Disclaimer: These are simulated statistical models for entertainment purposes only. Results are based on publicly available data and are believed to be accurate, but no guarantees are made.