La Liga

350 matches played 30 remaining 100,000 simulations per model
Current league table — 350 matches played, 30 remaining
# Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts Pts Range Pos Range
1 Barça 35 30 1 4 91 31 +60 91 91–100 1–1
2 Real Madrid 35 24 5 6 70 33 +37 77 77–86 2–3
3 Villarreal 35 21 6 8 65 40 +25 69 69–78 2–4
4 Atleti 35 19 6 10 58 38 +20 63 63–72 3–5
5 Real Betis 35 13 15 7 54 43 +11 54 54–63 4–7
6 Celta 35 13 11 11 49 44 +5 50 50–59 5–11
7 Getafe 35 13 6 16 28 36 -8 45 45–54 5–18
8 Real Sociedad 35 11 11 13 54 55 -1 44 44–53 6–19
9 Athletic 35 13 5 17 40 51 -11 44 44–53 6–18
10 Rayo Vallecano 35 10 13 12 36 42 -6 43 43–52 6–19
11 Osasuna 35 11 9 15 42 45 -3 42 42–51 6–19
12 Valencia 35 11 9 15 38 50 -12 42 42–51 6–19
13 Sevilla FC 35 11 7 17 43 56 -13 40 40–49 7–19
14 Elche 35 9 12 14 46 54 -8 39 39–48 7–19
15 Mallorca 35 10 9 16 43 52 -9 39 39–48 7–19
16 Espanyol 35 10 9 16 38 53 -15 39 39–48 7–19
17 Girona 35 9 12 14 37 52 -15 39 39–48 7–19
18 Alavés 35 9 10 16 41 54 -13 37 37–46 7–20
19 Levante 35 9 9 17 41 57 -16 36 36–45 9–20
20 Real Oviedo 35 6 11 18 26 54 -28 29 29–38 18–20
GlobalRateModel (home: 46.0%, draw: 25.0%, away: 29.0%)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last
1 Barça 1.0 1–1 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Real Madrid 2.0 2–2 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Villarreal 3.0 3–4 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Atleti 4.0 3–4 0.0% 99.8% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Real Betis 5.1 5–6 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Celta 6.0 5–7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Getafe 8.4 6–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Athletic 9.6 6–14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Real Sociedad 9.7 7–15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Rayo Vallecano 10.6 7–16 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
11 Valencia 11.1 7–16 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0%
12 Osasuna 11.2 7–17 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0%
13 Sevilla FC 14.1 9–18 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 0.0%
14 Espanyol 14.5 9–19 0.0% 0.0% 14.6% 0.0%
15 Girona 14.6 9–19 0.0% 0.0% 15.8% 0.0%
16 Elche 15.2 10–19 0.0% 0.0% 21.5% 0.0%
17 Mallorca 15.3 10–19 0.0% 0.0% 22.0% 0.0%
18 Alavés 16.6 11–19 0.0% 0.0% 44.6% 0.5%
19 Levante 17.8 13–19 0.0% 0.0% 70.6% 1.1%
20 Real Oviedo 20.0 20–20 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.4%
SeasonRateModel (home: 48.3%, draw: 25.1%, away: 26.6%)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last
1 Barça 1.0 1–1 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Real Madrid 2.0 2–2 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 Villarreal 3.0 3–4 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Atleti 4.0 3–4 0.0% 99.8% 0.0% 0.0%
5 Real Betis 5.1 5–6 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
6 Celta 6.0 5–7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
7 Getafe 8.3 6–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Athletic 9.7 7–14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
9 Real Sociedad 9.8 7–15 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
10 Rayo Vallecano 10.7 7–16 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
11 Valencia 11.0 7–16 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0%
12 Osasuna 11.1 7–17 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0%
13 Sevilla FC 14.2 9–18 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 0.0%
14 Espanyol 14.5 9–19 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 0.0%
15 Girona 14.6 9–19 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 0.0%
16 Elche 15.3 10–19 0.0% 0.0% 22.4% 0.0%
17 Mallorca 15.3 10–19 0.0% 0.0% 22.4% 0.0%
18 Alavés 16.6 11–19 0.0% 0.0% 43.3% 0.4%
19 Levante 17.9 14–19 0.0% 0.0% 72.1% 1.0%
20 Real Oviedo 20.0 20–20 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.6%
PoissonModel (home avg: 1.31, away avg: 1.11, half-life: 10)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last AtkDef
1 Barça 1.0 1–1 96–100+62–+76 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.740.40
2 Real Madrid 2.0 2–2 79–86+34–+47 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.180.91
3 Villarreal 3.0 3–3 72–78+23–+36 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.700.83
4 Atleti 4.0 4–4 63–72+15–+26 0.0% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.130.86
5 Real Betis 5.1 5–6 57–61+9–+21 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.630.87
6 Celta 5.9 5–6 54–59+5–+17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.320.88
7 Rayo Vallecano 8.2 7–12 46–52-8–+4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.110.73
8 Real Sociedad 8.7 7–13 45–53-5–+4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.091.37
9 Athletic 9.2 7–13 45–51-16–-4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.291.26
10 Osasuna 9.9 7–14 43–51-8–+4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.181.51
11 Getafe 10.5 7–13 45–51-15–-7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.240.85
12 Mallorca 12.0 8–16 41–48-12–-1 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.890.82
13 Valencia 13.0 9–16 42–48-21–-10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.750.89
14 Girona 14.7 10–18 39–46-21–-11 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 0.0% 0.701.06
15 Elche 14.7 11–18 39–45-16–-5 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 0.0% 1.041.28
16 Sevilla FC 15.2 12–18 40–46-25–-12 0.0% 0.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.891.07
17 Espanyol 16.5 13–19 39–45-25–-14 0.0% 0.0% 24.9% 0.0% 0.521.26
18 Alavés 17.8 15–19 37–43-25–-13 0.0% 0.0% 70.2% 0.0% 1.161.63
19 Levante 18.5 16–19 36–40-29–-16 0.0% 0.0% 91.2% 0.0% 1.141.55
20 Real Oviedo 20.0 20–20 29–33-39–-28 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.9% 0.381.19
DixonColesModel (home avg: 1.31, away avg: 1.11, rho: -0.080, half-life: 10)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last AtkDef
1 Barça 1.0 1–1 96–100+62–+75 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.740.40
2 Real Madrid 2.0 2–2 79–86+34–+47 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.180.91
3 Villarreal 3.0 3–3 72–78+23–+36 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.700.83
4 Atleti 4.0 4–4 63–72+15–+26 0.0% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.130.86
5 Real Betis 5.1 5–6 57–61+9–+21 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.630.87
6 Celta 5.9 5–6 54–59+5–+17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.320.88
7 Rayo Vallecano 8.1 7–12 46–52-8–+4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.110.73
8 Real Sociedad 8.7 7–13 45–53-5–+4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.091.37
9 Athletic 9.2 7–12 45–51-16–-4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.291.26
10 Osasuna 9.9 7–14 43–51-8–+4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.181.51
11 Getafe 10.5 7–13 45–50-15–-7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.240.85
12 Mallorca 12.0 8–16 41–48-12–-1 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.890.82
13 Valencia 13.0 9–16 42–48-21–-10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.750.89
14 Girona 14.7 10–18 39–46-21–-11 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 0.0% 0.701.06
15 Elche 14.7 11–18 39–45-16–-5 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 1.041.28
16 Sevilla FC 15.2 12–18 40–46-25–-12 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% 0.0% 0.891.07
17 Espanyol 16.5 13–19 39–45-25–-14 0.0% 0.0% 24.9% 0.0% 0.521.26
18 Alavés 17.8 15–19 37–43-25–-13 0.0% 0.0% 70.3% 0.0% 1.161.63
19 Levante 18.6 16–19 36–40-29–-16 0.0% 0.0% 91.4% 0.0% 1.141.55
20 Real Oviedo 20.0 20–20 29–33-39–-28 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.381.19
NegBinModel (home avg: 1.31, away avg: 1.11, alpha: 0.000, half-life: 10)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last AtkDef
1 Barça 1.0 1–1 96–100+62–+75 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.740.40
2 Real Madrid 2.0 2–2 79–86+34–+47 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.180.91
3 Villarreal 3.0 3–3 72–78+23–+36 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.700.83
4 Atleti 4.0 4–4 63–72+15–+26 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.130.86
5 Real Betis 5.1 5–6 57–61+9–+21 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.630.87
6 Celta 5.9 5–6 54–59+5–+17 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.320.88
7 Rayo Vallecano 8.2 7–12 46–52-8–+4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.110.73
8 Real Sociedad 8.7 7–13 45–53-5–+4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.091.37
9 Athletic 9.2 7–12 45–51-16–-4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.291.26
10 Osasuna 9.9 7–14 43–51-8–+4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.181.51
11 Getafe 10.5 7–13 45–51-15–-7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.240.85
12 Mallorca 12.0 8–16 41–48-12–-1 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.890.82
13 Valencia 13.0 9–16 42–48-21–-10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.750.89
14 Elche 14.7 11–18 39–45-16–-5 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 1.041.28
15 Girona 14.7 10–18 39–48-21–-11 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.701.06
16 Sevilla FC 15.2 12–18 40–46-25–-12 0.0% 0.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.891.07
17 Espanyol 16.5 13–19 39–45-25–-14 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 0.0% 0.521.26
18 Alavés 17.8 15–19 37–43-25–-13 0.0% 0.0% 69.9% 0.0% 1.161.63
19 Levante 18.5 16–19 36–40-29–-16 0.0% 0.0% 91.2% 0.0% 1.141.55
20 Real Oviedo 20.0 20–20 29–33-39–-28 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.381.19
EloModel (K=20, home adv: 50 Elo pts, draw rate: 25.1%)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last Elo
1 Barça 1.0 1–1 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1695
2 Real Madrid 2.0 2–2 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1616
3 Villarreal 3.0 3–4 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1578
4 Atleti 4.0 3–4 0.0% 99.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1555
5 Real Betis 5.1 5–6 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1535
6 Celta 6.0 5–7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1515
7 Getafe 8.3 6–13 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1483
8 Real Sociedad 9.2 7–14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1496
9 Athletic 9.9 7–14 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1466
10 Rayo Vallecano 10.5 7–15 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1487
11 Osasuna 11.0 7–16 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1482
12 Valencia 11.7 7–17 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 1476
13 Mallorca 14.4 9–19 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 0.0% 1476
14 Girona 14.6 9–19 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 0.0% 1469
15 Espanyol 14.7 9–19 0.0% 0.0% 15.3% 0.0% 1437
16 Sevilla FC 14.8 10–19 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 0.0% 1447
17 Elche 15.0 9–19 0.0% 0.0% 18.8% 0.0% 1461
18 Alavés 17.0 12–19 0.0% 0.0% 52.7% 0.6% 1449
19 Levante 17.8 13–19 0.0% 0.0% 69.8% 0.7% 1456
20 Real Oviedo 20.0 20–20 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.8% 1421
EloPoissonModel (K=20, MoV-scaled, home adv: 50 Elo pts, home avg: 1.56, away avg: 1.13)about this model
# Team Avg Pos 95% CI Pts CIGD CI 1st Top 4 Bot 3 Last Elo
1 Barça 1.0 1–1 94–100+59–+70 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1695
2 Real Madrid 2.0 2–2 80–86+36–+47 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1616
3 Villarreal 3.0 3–4 70–78+22–+33 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1578
4 Atleti 4.0 3–4 63–72+15–+26 0.0% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1555
5 Real Betis 5.1 5–6 55–63+6–+17 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1535
6 Celta 5.9 5–7 51–59+1–+12 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1515
7 Getafe 8.3 7–12 45–54-13–-2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1483
8 Real Sociedad 8.7 7–13 44–53-6–+5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1496
9 Athletic 10.2 7–14 44–51-18–-7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1466
10 Rayo Vallecano 10.4 7–15 43–52-12–-1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1487
11 Osasuna 10.4 7–15 42–51-8–+3 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1482
12 Valencia 12.1 8–17 42–49-19–-8 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1476
13 Mallorca 13.9 9–18 39–48-14–-3 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% 1476
14 Elche 14.7 10–19 39–46-15–-4 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 0.0% 1461
15 Girona 14.8 10–19 39–48-21–-10 0.0% 0.0% 15.2% 0.0% 1469
16 Espanyol 14.9 9–19 39–48-21–-10 0.0% 0.0% 16.9% 0.0% 1437
17 Sevilla FC 15.6 11–19 40–46-22–-11 0.0% 0.0% 20.2% 0.0% 1447
18 Alavés 17.0 12–19 37–44-20–-9 0.0% 0.0% 51.4% 0.1% 1449
19 Levante 18.0 14–19 36–43-23–-12 0.0% 0.0% 74.8% 0.2% 1456
20 Real Oviedo 20.0 20–20 29–36-36–-25 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.7% 1421
Top 4
Bottom 3
Generated 2026-05-12 14:06
Disclaimer: These are simulated statistical models for entertainment purposes only. Results are based on publicly available data and are believed to be accurate, but no guarantees are made.